Alianza Lima vs Real Garcilaso: match statistics

Alianza Lima is the clear favorite based on home metrics: at home they average 2.0 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per game, have average xG 1.87 vs xG against 0.69 and register on average 18 shots with 6.75 on target. At home the hosts have 100% wins and 50% clean sheets according to data, and in their last five matches overall they scored 7 and conceded 3, averaging 2.0 points per game. Real Garcilaso on the road scores 1.2 goals and concedes 1.2, has xG 1.31 vs xG against 1.33, delivers 11 shots with 5 on target and records 40% matches without scoring and 60% away losses. In their last five matches the visitors scored 7 and conceded 8, averaging 1.2 points per game, which overall indicates weaker form and fewer clear chances. The difference in efficiency (2.0 vs 1.2), in quality of created chances (xG 1.87 vs 1.31) and in shot volume (18 vs 11) favors a home win.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 75% for Alianza Lima and 60% for Real Garcilaso, versus a league average of 56%, which preliminarily favors a BTTS - Yes outcome. In the short term (last 5 matches) Alianza has BTTS 40% and Real 80%, yielding a 60% average and indicating that Real is primarily driving the both-teams-to-score pattern. Goal and xG data also support BTTS: Alianza has scored 13 and conceded 5 this season, Real 12 scored and 10 conceded; seasonal G/A averages are 1.5 and 1.2, xG are 1.54 vs 1.31, and conceded averages are 1.0 vs 1.2 (in the last 5 matches Alianza conceded 0.6, Real 1.6). Additionally, Real has 0% clean sheets and Alianza only 25% of matches without conceding, and both teams average 5 shots on target each, therefore I assess the probability of BTTS at 70% versus 30% for No Goal.

Combined xG indicates around 2.71 goals: home xG 1.54 against away xG conceded 1.33 yields ~1.44 for Alianza, and away xG 1.31 against home xG conceded 1.23 yields ~1.27 for Real Garcilaso. Seasonally Alianza has Over 1.5 in 75% of matches, Real Garcilaso in 60%, and BTTS occurs in 75% and 60% of matches respectively, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Alianza averages 15.5 shots and 5.0 on target per match versus Real’s 11.0 and 5.0; Real has conceded 8 goals in the last 5 matches (1.6 avg) while Alianza conceded 3 (0.6 avg), favoring a higher goal count. A Poisson model with lambda=2.71 gives ~75% chance of 2+ goals (Over 1.5), ~51% for 3+ (Over 2.5) and ~29% for 4+ (Over 3.5). Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: the projected 2.71 goals, high BTTS rate and Real’s defensive vulnerability provide a clear edge for this option.

Alianza Lima have a seasonal goals-per-game average of 1.5 versus Real Garcilaso’s 1.2 and a higher xG (1.54 vs 1.31), and over the last five matches the home side average 2.0 points per game versus the visitors’ 1.2, indicating a general match advantage for the hosts. In the first half, however, the visitors dominate: Real Garcilaso’s half-time goals average is 0.8 versus Alianza’s 0.5, and the visitors scored 2 goals in minutes 0–15 and a further 2 in minutes 16–30 (4 goals in 0–30) while the hosts scored only 1 in that interval. Alianza’s strength emerges after the break — the hosts score on average 1.0 goal in the second half versus 0.4 for the visitors, have collected 7 points after half-time (1.75 points per match) versus Real Garcilaso’s 4 points (0.8), and a positive second-half goal difference of +1 versus the visitors’ −2. Additionally, draws at half-time are common (drawingAtHTPercentage_home 75% and drawingAtHTPercentage_away 60%, roughly 67% on average), and Real lead at the break more often than the hosts (leadingAtHTPercentage_away 40% vs 25%), suggesting an initial draw or a minimal visitor lead. For these reasons the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an Alianza win at full-time (X/1) — I assign it 38% due to the frequency of HT draws and the clear home advantage in the second half (1.0 vs 0.4 goals and 1.75 vs 0.8 average points after the break).