Alianza Lima vs Sport Huancayo: match statistics

Alianza Lima holds a clear home advantage: at home they average 2.75 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per match, have an 88% win rate at their stadium and average xG of 1.98 versus 0.8 xG against. Sport Huancayo away records show 0% wins and 78% losses, scoring 1.0 goal and conceding 2.44 goals per away match, with away xG 1.14 against 1.59 xG conceded. The difference in chance creation is significant: the hosts produce 18 shots with 7.38 on target and enjoy 58% possession, while the visitors average only 10.22 shots with 3.11 on target and 46% possession, with conversion rates of 15% vs 10%. Form also favors Alianza — in the last 5 matches they scored 8 goals, recorded 3 wins and 2 draws, averaging 2.2 points per game, whereas Sport conceded 13 goals in their last 5 and average 0.8 points per game. Given the advantage in efficiency, quality of chances and defensive stability, I forecast a home win.

Both teams have very high seasonal BTTS rates: Alianza Lima 75% and Sport Huancayo 78%, significantly above the league average of 56%. In the last 5 matches the home side had BTTS in 60% of games, while the visitors in all 5 matches (100%), indicating a strong recent trend toward Goal/Goal. Goal and xG statistics support this: Alianza scores 1.5 goals per game (xG 1.74) and concedes 1.13, whereas Sport averages 1.0 goal (xG 1.14) but concedes as many as 2.44 goals per game (xG against 1.59). Additionally, clean sheet expected rates are only 13% for the home team and 11% for the visitors, and Alianza averages 5.25 shots on target versus 3.11 for the visitors; matches often finish over 2.5 goals (63% for the home team and 89% for the visitors) and frequently combine Over2.5 with BTTS (63% and 78%). Considering the high seasonal BTTS 75%/78%, the recent 60% vs 100%, Sport conceding an average of 2.6 in the last 5 matches (13 goals in 5 games), and the low share of clean sheets, I tip BTTS - Yes with an 80% probability.

Based on xG I expect about 1.66 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.98 for Sport Huancayo (total 2.64), calculated from home attack xG 1.74 and away defense xG 1.59, and away attack xG 1.14 and home defense xG 0.81. Both teams have a very high share of matches with more than 1.5 goals: 88% for Alianza and 89% for Sport Huancayo, which makes Over 1.5 the strongest signal. Over 2.5 also looks strong — season rates 63% for the home side vs 89% for the visitors (average about 76%), and in the last 5 matches Sport had 100% of games over 2.5 and conceded 13 goals, which increases the likelihood of multiple strikes. Over 3.5 is less likely: season rates 13% for Alianza and 44% for Sport (average ~29%), and the expected total of 2.64 goals provides little buffer to 3.5; low clean sheet rates 13% and 11% and a high share of matches with both teams scoring (75% and 78%) further support the Over selection, particularly on the 1.5 line.

Alianza Lima are frequently level at half-time at home: in 6 of 8 home matches the score was tied at the break (75%), and the hosts kept a clean sheet at half-time in 5 of 8 games (63%), so the first half often ends without a lead. After the break Alianza intensify their play — they average 1.0 goal in the second half and earn 1.5 points in second halves (12 points 2H), while Sport Huancayo scores only 0.44 goals after the break and has 0.33 points in 2H. The quality gap is also visible in xG and shots: home xG for attack 1.74 versus 1.14 for the visitors, xG conceded 0.81 versus 1.59, and on average 5.25 shots on target for the hosts against 3.11 for the visitors. Across the season Alianza have 1.75 points per home game versus 0.22 points per game for Sport Huancayo away, and in the last 5 matches the hosts led at half-time in 60% of cases (3 of 5), suggesting an improvement in their starts. Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1) — I assign it 39%, with alternatives X/X 21% and X/2 10%.