Alianza Petrolera vs Atlético Bucaramanga: match statistics

Alianza Petrolera draw as many as 55% of their home matches and win only 18%, which significantly increases the likelihood of a stalemate. Atlético Bucaramanga are in better current form: they have collected 8 points from their last five games, recording 2 wins and 2 draws, while the hosts have managed just 4 points. The visitors also have the better overall season record, scoring 29 goals and conceding 22, compared with Alianza’s 15 goals scored and 30 conceded. However, they average only 0.73 goals per away match and fail to score in 45% of their away fixtures. At home, the hosts create slightly better chances, posting an xG of 1.26 and 3.18 shots on target per match, but their finishing has produced just 0.82 goals per game. With both teams recording similar xG figures and Alianza’s low average of 1.91 total goals in home matches, a draw in a low-scoring encounter is the most likely outcome.

Alianza Petrolera score an average of 1.91 goals at home and have an xG of 1.57, making a goal from them highly likely against a Bucaramanga defense that concedes 1.27 goals away from home. However, the key argument against BTTS is the visitors’ attack: they score only 0.73 goals per match away from home and failed to score in 45% of their games. The hosts defend solidly at home, conceding an average of 0.73 goals with opponents’ xG at just 0.83, while keeping a clean sheet in 45% of matches. Bucaramanga’s last five appearances have indeed produced BTTS in 80% of games and an average of 1.40 goals scored per match, but during the same period Alianza allowed opponents an xG of only 0.97. BTTS rates of 55% for the hosts and 45% for the visitors do not provide sufficiently strong support for a Goal/Goal scenario, so it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

Alianza Petrolera score an average of 1.91 goals at home, but Atlético Bucaramanga concede only 1.27 away from home, limiting the hosts’ projection to around 1.58 goals. The visitors score just 0.73 goals per away match, while the hosts concede 0.73 at home, despite Bucaramanga’s xG from their last five matches standing at a respectable 1.45. In their last five matches, both teams averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, pointing more towards a total of around two or three goals than an open, high-scoring game. The 3.5 line landed on the under in 73% of Alianza’s matches and as many as 91% of Bucaramanga’s, while Over 3.5 goals occurred in only 27% and 9% of cases, respectively. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals has the strongest support from both the season profiles and the projected total of 2.45 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Alianza Petrolera win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 64% of their matches, compared with 55% for Atlético Bucaramanga. The first half should be cautious: Alianza concede an average of just 0.45 goals during this period, while the visitors score only 0.36 goals and failed to score before the break in 73% of matches. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage increases, as they score an average of 1.00 goal in the second half, while Bucaramanga concede 0.73 goals during that period. Alianza’s higher seasonal goals average, 1.91 versus 0.73, and stronger defence, with an xG against of 0.83 compared with the opponents’ 1.28, also support a home win at full-time. However, the visitors’ recent form is clearly better, averaging 1.6 points per match across their last five appearances compared with 0.8 for the hosts, so a draw or an away win after the break also retains significant probability.