Almagro vs Atlético Rafaela: match statistics
Almagro vs Atlético Rafaela: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Almagro play Atlético Rafaela in Prim B Nacional (Argentina). The match date is 4 July 2026 at 20:30. Venue: Estadio Tres de Febrero. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Almagro: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Atlético Rafaela: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Almagro scores 0.80 and concedes 1.10 goals per match. Atlético Rafaela scores 0.71 and concedes 0.86. League average: 1.89 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Almagro 30%, Atlético Rafaela 29%. Over 2.5: Almagro 25%, Atlético Rafaela 24%. League level: BTTS 39%, Over 2.5 30%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Rafaela has higher xG: 1.15 vs 1.09. Almagro: 8.7 shots per match, Atlético Rafaela: 8.4.
Match halves
Almagro: half-time lead 10%, second-half goals 0.65. Atlético Rafaela: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.48.
Goals by minute
Almagro: 46-60 (5 goals). Atlético Rafaela: 46-60 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prim B Nacional: 1.89 goals per match, BTTS 39%, Over 2.5 30%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
I back Almagro to win — hosts register 56% home wins and a +5 goal difference at home, while Atlético Rafaela has -5 on the road and only an 11% away-win rate. Offensively Almagro averages 1.22 goals per home game with 10.56 shots and 3 on target, whereas Rafaela away averages just 0.44 goals with 9 shots and 2.78 on target; conversion rate is 12% vs 5%. Defensively Almagro concedes 0.67 goals per home game, Rafaela concedes 1.00 on the road; additionally xG shows 1.24 xG for Almagro vs 1.12 for Rafaela and xG against 1.38 vs 1.88, suggesting the visitors allow higher-quality chances. In the last 5 matches Almagro scored 6 goals and averages 2.0 points per game (3W, 1D, 1L), while Rafaela has 1 goal and 1.2 points per game in that period (1W, 3D, 1L), highlighting the visitors’ weaker attacking form. Rafaela fail to score in 56% of away matches versus 22% of Almagro games without a goal, so despite some balanced metrics (e.g. 44% clean sheets for both), I give a higher probability to the home win, with a draw still a realistic outcome.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Almagro | Atlético Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Almagro is 400% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Almagro · 0.4 pts / match - Atlético Rafaela
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Almagro is 13% better for: goals scored per match.
0.8 goals / match - Almagro · 0.71 goals / match - Atlético Rafaela
Atlético Rafaela is 28% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.1 goals / match - Almagro · 0.86 goals / match - Atlético Rafaela
Almagro scores in 55% of matches (11 of 20 matches), while Atlético Rafaela keeps a clean sheet in 52% (11 of 21 matches).
Atlético Rafaela scores in 57% of matches (12 of 21 matches), while Almagro keeps a clean sheet in 35% (7 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Almagro
Over / Under — Atlético Rafaela
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atlético Rafaela is 24% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.85 pts / match - Almagro · 1.05 pts / match - Atlético Rafaela
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Almagro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 10% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Atlético Rafaela - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Almagro
Atlético Rafaela
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prim B Nacional).
Teams vs league
| Almagro | Liga | Atlético Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.90 | 1.89 | ▼ 1.57 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 30% | 39% | ▼ 29% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 30% | ▼ 24% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 35% | 39% | ▲ 52% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 45% | 56% | ▼ 48% |
| Goal after half-time | • 70% | 70% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Almagro 0 - 1 - 0 Atlético Rafaela. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Almagro vs Atlético Rafaela?
The Prim B Nacional match finished Almagro 1:0 Atlético Rafaela. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Almagro vs Atlético Rafaela?
Almagro score 0.80 goals per game on average and Atlético Rafaela 0.71. The Prim B Nacional average is 1.89 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 30% of games. Both teams score in 30% of Almagro's matches and 29% of Atlético Rafaela's.
What form are Almagro and Atlético Rafaela in?
Over the last 5 games Almagro have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Atlético Rafaela 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Almagro vs Atlético Rafaela?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Almagro vs Atlético Rafaela: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.