Almagro vs Chacarita Juniors: match statistics

Almagro have a clear home advantage: they win 38% of their home matches, while Chacarita Juniors have won only 6% of their away games and lost as many as 75%. The hosts average 1 goal scored and 0.88 conceded at home, while the visitors manage just 0.44 goals per away game and concede 1.38. Chacarita have failed to score in 63% of their away matches, which, alongside Almagro’s 38% home clean-sheet rate, strengthens the case for the hosts. Average xG figures are more closely matched—1.27 for Almagro at home and 1.10 for Chacarita away—so the hosts’ advantage does not guarantee a convincing win. Recent form also calls for caution: Almagro have won just 1 of their last 5 matches and conceded 9 goals in that run, while the visitors have won 2 of 5 and conceded 4.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is Chacarita Juniors' attack: away from home, they score just 0.44 goals per game and fail to score in 63% of matches. Almagro keep a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, and both teams score in just 25% of their home games, compared with 31% in their opponents' away matches. The hosts are more likely to find the net, averaging 1.06 goals at home, while Chacarita concede 1.38 goals away. Almagro's recent form offers some counterweight: they conceded an average of 1.8 goals over their last five matches, with BTTS landing in 80% of them. Despite this, the visitors' season-long scoring struggles and the low BTTS rates for both sides suggest a match in which at least one team fails to score is more likely.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this total was recorded in 94% of Almagro’s home matches and 94% of Chacarita Juniors’ away matches. The visitors average just 0.44 goals away from home and failed to score in 63% of those games; the hosts keep a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches. However, Almagro could take advantage of their opponents’ defence, which concedes an average of 1.38 goals away from home, so the forecast is 1.25 goals for the hosts and 0.80 for the visitors. Almagro’s recent form calls for some caution: at least three goals were scored in four of the team’s last five matches. Still, with a projected total of 2.05 goals, the 3.5 line remains a safer pick than 2.5.

Almagro were level at half-time in 9 of 16 matches (56%), compared with Chacarita Juniors in 8 of 16 (50%), making a tight opening the most likely scenario. In their last five matches, the hosts went into the break level four times, although the visitors were already trailing at half-time on three occasions, making an Almagro lead at the break a realistic alternative. After the break, Almagro average 0.69 goals, while Chacarita concede 0.88 and fail to score in 88% of second halves. The hosts’ advantage over the full match is supported by an average of 1.69 points per game compared with the visitors’ 0.38, as well as win rates of 50% versus 6%. Almagro’s weaker results in their last five matches, averaging 0.8 points compared with Chacarita’s 1.2, reduce confidence in the prediction, but a half-time draw followed by a home win remains the strongest HT/FT scenario.