Almagro vs Patronato: match statistics
Almagro vs Patronato: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Almagro played Patronato in Prim B Nacional (Argentina). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Almagro: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Patronato: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Almagro scores 0.57 and concedes 0.71 goals per match. Patronato scores 0.43 and concedes 1.29. League average: 1.83 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Almagro 14%, Patronato 14%. Over 2.5: Almagro 0%, Patronato 29%. League level: BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 30%.
xG, shots and style
xG is very similar for both teams. Almagro: 6.7 shots per match, Patronato: 8.9.
Match halves
Almagro: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.43. Patronato: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.29.
Goals by minute
Almagro: 46-60 (2 goals). Patronato: 31-45+ (1 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prim B Nacional: 1.83 goals per match, BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 30%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back a home win for Almagro (1). At home they have a 67% win rate and concede only 0.33 goals per game on average, with 67% clean sheets. Patronato has zero away wins (0%) and averages 0 goals scored on the road — 0.0 goals per game and 100% of away matches without scoring. In the last five matches Almagro have scored 4 and conceded 4, while Patronato have scored 2 and conceded 7, clearly indicating a home advantage in offensive efficiency and defensive stability. In xG the teams are close (Almagro xG For 1.05 vs Patronato xG For 0.99), but Almagro convert chances into on-target attempts better at home (2.67 on-target shots vs 2.0 for the visitors) and maintain higher possession 51% vs 48%. Additionally, average points over the last five matches are 1.4 for Almagro versus 0.8 for Patronato, supporting a higher probability of a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Patronato has a season scoring average of 0.0 goals and a season BTTS of 0% (BTTS also 0% in the last 5 matches), which is the strongest signal that they frequently fail to score. Almagro scores 1.0 goal per match on average and has a season BTTS of 33%, but concedes 1.33 goals per match for the season and in the last 5 matches averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, so both sides rarely reach high finishing efficiency. The xG of both teams is nearly identical (0.97 vs 0.99), yet finishing rates show 12% for the home side and 0% for the away side, with just 2.0 shots on target per match for each team. Additionally, the league clean sheet percentage is 79%, and Patronato has 50% clean sheets this season; in the last 5 matches the away side scored only 2 goals and conceded 7, which reinforces a No Goal/No Goal scenario. Therefore I assign 25% to BTTS - Yes and 75% to BTTS - No, recommending the 'No' bet as the strongest signal from the data.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Summing xG: Almagro’s attack 0.97 vs Patronato’s defense 1.20 projects 1.09 goals for the home side; Patronato’s attack 0.99 vs Almagro’s defense 1.40 projects 1.20 goals for the away side, totaling ~2.29 goals. Seasonal rates show Almagro at home has 100% of matches >1.5 goals but only 33% >2.5, while Patronato away records 50% >1.5 and 25% >2.5, averaging roughly 29% of matches >2.5. The league is low-scoring (1.83 goals per match) with 79% clean sheets, and in the last 5 fixtures the hosts averaged 0.8 goals, visitors 0.4, so goal production is limited. A Poisson model on the expected 2.29 goals yields ~40% probability of at least 3 goals, but given seasonal Over2.5 distributions (33%/25%) and the high share of matches under 2.5 (67%/75%), I conservatively rate Over2.5 at ~35% vs Under2.5 ~65%. Therefore I recommend the Under side on the 2.5 line as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1) — I rate it at 40%. The home side led at the break in 33% of matches, while Patronato have never held a lead at the break; first-half goals per game are 0.33 for Almagro and 0.0 for the visitors. Patronato have a season average of 0.0 goals scored and a shot conversion of 0%, while 50% of their matches finish level, which increases the likelihood of a quiet first 45 minutes. Almagro have a clear advantage after the break: 100% of their matches produce more than 0.5 goals in the second half and they average 1.8 points in second halves over the last five matches; despite similar xG (0.97 vs 0.99), the hosts convert better (12% vs 0%), so they are more often decisive after the interval. Therefore I assign 40% to X/1, 22% to X/X and 18% to 1/1; scenarios starting with ‘2’ total only 7% due to 0% away wins and the visitors’ lack of goals this season.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Almagro | Patronato | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 23% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Almagro is 75% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Almagro · 0.8 pts / match - Patronato
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Almagro is 33% better for: goals scored per match.
0.57 goals / match - Almagro · 0.43 goals / match - Patronato
Almagro is 82% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.71 goals / match - Almagro · 1.29 goals / match - Patronato
Almagro scores in 43% of matches (3 of 7 matches), while Patronato keeps a clean sheet in 43% (3 of 7 matches).
Patronato scores in 29% of matches (2 of 7 matches), while Almagro keeps a clean sheet in 43% (3 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Almagro
Over / Under - Patronato
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Almagro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Patronato - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 14%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (1 goal). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Almagro
Patronato
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prim B Nacional).
Teams vs league
| Almagro | Liga | Patronato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.29 | 1.83 | ▼ 1.71 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 14% | 38% | ▼ 14% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 0% | 30% | • 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 39% | ▲ 43% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 57% | 62% | ▼ 57% |
| Goal after half-time | • 71% | 71% | • 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Almagro 1 - 1 - 0 Patronato. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Almagro vs Patronato?
The Prim B Nacional match finished Almagro 0:1 Patronato. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Almagro and Patronato?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Almagro won 1, Patronato won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Almagro vs Patronato?
Almagro score 0.57 goals per game on average and Patronato 0.43. The Prim B Nacional average is 1.83 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 30% of games. Both teams score in 14% of Almagro's matches and 14% of Patronato's.
What form are Almagro and Patronato in?
Over the last 5 games Almagro have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Patronato 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Almagro vs Patronato?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Almagro vs Patronato: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.