Almere City vs Den Bosch: match statistics

Almere City holds a clear edge: at home they score on average 2.24 goals per game (xG 1.92) versus Den Bosch’s 1.53 goals on the road (xG 1.37), and for the season it’s 71 goals vs 58. The home defence is also stronger — Almere concedes 1.29 goals at home on average, while the visitors concede 2.18 away; xG against is 1.41 for Almere and 1.81 for Den Bosch. The hosts create significantly more chances: 18.29 shots and 6.24 on target per home game versus 11.53 and 4.76 for the visitors (a difference of 6.76 shots and 1.48 shots on target), despite similar conversion rates of 12% vs 13%. In the last 5 matches Almere has 4 wins and 1 draw (11 goals, 2.6 points per game), while Den Bosch has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (9 goals, 1.6 points per game). Considering the advantage in chance creation, superior xG and lower goals conceded at home, and 35% clean sheets for Almere versus 6% away clean sheets for the visitors, I tip Almere City to win.

Both teams have a high percentage of matches with goals from both sides: Almere City 69% and Den Bosch 76% this season, versus a league average of 62%, which seasonally strongly favors BTTS. Almere scores 2.00 goals per game on average (xG 1.75), while Den Bosch concedes 2.18 goals per game (xG against 1.81), so Almere’s attack has favorable conditions to score. Den Bosch scores 1.53 goals per game (xG 1.37), and Almere concedes 1.38 goals on the season; in the last 5 matches Den Bosch has scored 9 goals (1.8/match) and Almere has conceded 5 goals (1.0/match), indicating a realistic scoring opportunity for the visitors. Additional indicators: Den Bosch has only 6% clean sheets, Almere fails to score in 6% of matches (Den Bosch 18%), and the league averages 3.21 goals per game with high over 2.5 percentages (63% and 76%), all of which support both teams scoring. Considering season-long BTTS 69% vs 76%, last 5 matches BTTS 60% vs 80%, and xG and shots stats (Almere 5.56 shots on target and 14.94 shots, Den Bosch 4.76 and 11.53), the most probable selection is BTTS - Yes — I rate it at 80% vs 20% for No.

An xG-based model predicts around 3.24 goals in the match: Almere City ~1.78 (xG_for at home 1.75 and xG_conceded by Den Bosch 1.81) and Den Bosch ~1.46 (xG_for 1.37 and xG_conceded by Almere 1.54), total 3.24. Season shares show a strong goal trend: Almere has 81% of matches over 1.5 goals, Den Bosch 94%; for the 2.5 line it is 63% and 76% respectively, and for 3.5 it is 38% vs 53%. The probability that both teams score is 69% (Almere) and 76% (Den Bosch), and in the last 5 matches this metric reached 60% and 80%, which further increases the chance of multiple goals. Shot and quality-chance statistics confirm an offensive profile: Almere averages 14.94 shots and 5.56 on target with xG 1.75, Den Bosch 11.53 shots and 4.76 on target with xG 1.37, while both defenses allow on average 1.54 and 1.81 xG. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is over 1.5 (estimated 90%), over 2.5 is also significant (~72%), while over 3.5 is more balanced (~45%), so I recommend a bet on over 1.5.

The most probable scenario is Almere City leading at half-time and winning at full-time (1/1), which I estimate at 42%. Almere scores an average of 1.13 goals by the break, Den Bosch concedes an average of 1.24 first-half goals, and the home side led at the break in 44% of home matches versus only 24% of away leads for the visitors; the average of these indicators suggests about a 52% chance of the home team leading after 45 minutes. Over the full match Almere averages 2.0 goals (xG 1.75) compared to Den Bosch’s average of 2.18 conceded, and the home team wins 50% of matches at home versus just 29% away wins for the visitors, so the estimated conversion of a half-time lead into a full-time victory (1/1) rises to 42%. Additionally, Almere averages 5.56 shots on target versus Den Bosch’s 4.76, and in their last 5 home matches the hosts have a 80% win rate (4 of 5), which reduces the likelihood of draws and equalizing goals. Therefore I assigned smaller shares to scenarios such as 1/X (8%) and X/1 (14%), moderate chances to half-time draw/full-time draw (X/X 11%) and a low probability to situations where Den Bosch lead at half-time (totalling 16%).