Almere City vs PSV II: match statistics

Almere City are higher in the table, sitting 6th compared with PSV II in 14th, which, given the very limited sample size early in the season, favors the hosts. In their last five matches, Almere scored 6 goals, 2 more than PSV II, while conceding 7 compared with their opponents’ 6. However, the hosts have recorded just 1 win and 2 draws in this period, so their advantage is far from decisive. PSV II won 2 of their last 5 matches but also suffered 3 defeats and recorded no draws, pointing to a less stable results profile. Almere City began the season with a 1:1 draw, making a closely contested match a realistic scenario, but their higher league position and slightly better recent attacking output give them a slight edge to win.

The slight edge toward the scenario in which both teams score is primarily due to the league profile, where BTTS occurs in as many as 88% of matches and the average is 2.88 goals per game. Almere City recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 1.4, which points to consistently open games. PSV II recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last 5 appearances and scored just 0.8 goals per game, so the risk of them failing to score remains significant. At the same time, their average xG over this period was 1.65, compared with 1.61 xG conceded by Almere City, suggesting greater attacking potential than the 4 goals scored alone would indicate. Almere City created an average of 1.71 xG, while PSV II allowed opponents 1.61 xG, so the home side should also have good conditions to find the net.

Data from the last five matches indicates a moderate number of goals: Almere City averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while PSV II scored 0.8 and conceded 1.2. Although the average xG figures for both teams are higher—1.71 for the home side and 1.65 for the visitors—only 40% of Almere’s recent matches and 20% of PSV II’s exceeded the 2.5-goal line. This produces a projected total of 2.75 goals, below the league average of 2.88. A result with four or more goals would require significantly better finishing than PSV II have shown in their recent form. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the results of both teams more often fall within the 1-to-3-goal range than lead to an open, high-scoring game with at least four goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw both at half-time and at full-time, as Almere drew 3 of their last 5 matches, while PSV II lost as many as 60% of those games. The first halves of both teams were very cautious: Almere averaged 0.4 goals before the break, PSV II just 0.2, while the combined average was 0.8 and 0.6 goals, respectively. The hosts were level at half-time in 60% of their recent matches, compared with 40% for the visitors, which clearly supports the X outcome after 45 minutes. After the break, both teams had a zero goal difference in their last five appearances, despite Almere conceding an average of 1.0 goal and PSV II 0.8. Given Almere's record of 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat, along with PSV II's lack of draws, a low-scoring draw appears most likely, with a possible second-half turnaround.