Almere City vs Volendam: match statistics

Almere City are second in the table and have won 2 of their 3 home matches, while Volendam have lost all 4 of their away games. The biggest difference is in defence: the hosts concede an average of 0.67 goals at home, compared with a staggering 3.25 for the visitors away from home. Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but Volendam have conceded 12 goals during that spell, against 5 for Almere. The visitors can still pose a threat, averaging 1.5 goals away from home, but their xG in those matches is 1.01, compared with Almere’s 1.38 at home. Although the hosts allow chances worth an average xG of 1.97 at home, Volendam’s losing run on the road and their high number of goals conceded point to an Almere City win.

BTTS landed in 75% of Volendam’s matches and 50% of Almere City’s, compared with a league average of 71%, pointing towards goals for both teams. A home goal looks particularly likely: Almere City average 3.5 goals scored at home, while Volendam concede 3.25 on the road. The visitors also have attacking arguments in their favour — they averaged 3.0 goals scored over their last five matches, with an xG of 1.69. However, caution is warranted: Almere City kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches and have allowed opponents an average of just 1.0 goal across their last five games. Despite the hosts’ defensive solidity, Volendam’s scoring form and the high number of goals they concede make BTTS - Yes the more likely pick.

Almere City score an average of 3.5 goals at home, while Volendam concede 3.25 on the road, pointing to strong scoring potential for the hosts. The average xG figures support this: 1.89 for Almere’s attack compared with 2.07 conceded by Volendam’s defence. In their last five matches, Volendam conceded an average of 2.4 goals, with at least three goals scored in 80% of those games; the figure for Almere was 60%. Over 1.5 goals has the strongest statistical backing: this line was cleared in 100% of Almere’s home matches and 75% of Volendam’s away fixtures. The forecast of 4.15 goals gives this line a greater margin of safety than the 2.5 and 3.5 lines, although both also look promising.

Almere City won all 4 of the analysed home matches, scoring an average of 3.5 goals, while Volendam lost all 4 away matches and conceded an average of 3.25 goals in them. The hosts had a lead at the break in 3 of those 4 games and scored an average of 1.75 goals before half-time; the visitors did not lead at the break in any of their away matches. Almere also hold the advantage after the interval: they scored an average of 1.75 goals at home in the second half, while Volendam conceded 2.25 on the road. Some caution is warranted, however, as all 5 of Almere’s most recent matches, including away fixtures, were level at half-time. Despite this, the convergence of both teams’ home and away results makes Almere leading at the break and winning at full-time the most likely scenario.