Almería vs Ceuta: match statistics
Almería displays significantly better home form with a 55% win rate and an impressive average of 2.18 goals per game at home, while Ceuta wins only 18% of their away matches. The hosts possess far superior offensive statistics, averaging 7 shots on target and 17.45 total shots per match with a 13% conversion rate, which exceeds Ceuta's modest 2.64 shots on target per game on the road. The difference in xG is also clear – 1.97 for Almería versus 1.04 for the visitors, confirming the home side's qualitative advantage. Ceuta has a negative goal difference of -7 away from home and a high 36% of matches without scoring a goal, which, against Almería's solid defense (27% clean sheets), limits their chances. Despite the hosts' recent poor run, their dominance in home matches and clear statistical superiority point towards their victory.
Almería vs Ceuta: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Almería played Ceuta in Segunda División (Spain). The match was played on 1 February 2026. Final score: 4:2.
Current form
Almería: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Ceuta: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Almería scores 1.78 and concedes 1.43 goals per match. Ceuta scores 1.22 and concedes 1.30. League average: 2.53 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Almería 70%, Ceuta 52%. Over 2.5: Almería 70%, Ceuta 52%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Almería has higher xG: 1.71 vs 1.31. Almería: 15.5 shots per match, Ceuta: 11.1.
Match halves
Almería: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 1.04. Ceuta: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Almería: 76-90+ (10 goals). Ceuta: 0-15 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Segunda División: 2.53 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Almería displays significantly better home form with a 55% win rate and an impressive average of 2.18 goals per game at home, while Ceuta wins only 18% of their away matches. The hosts possess far superior offensive statistics, averaging 7 shots on target and 17.45 total shots per match with a 13% conversion rate, which exceeds Ceuta's modest 2.64 shots on target per game on the road. The difference in xG is also clear – 1.97 for Almería versus 1.04 for the visitors, confirming the home side's qualitative advantage. Ceuta has a negative goal difference of -7 away from home and a high 36% of matches without scoring a goal, which, against Almería's solid defense (27% clean sheets), limits their chances. Despite the hosts' recent poor run, their dominance in home matches and clear statistical superiority point towards their victory.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Almería | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ceuta is 125% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Almería · 1.8 pts / match - Ceuta
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Almería is 46% better for: goals scored per match.
1.78 goals / match - Almería · 1.22 goals / match - Ceuta
Ceuta is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.43 goals / match - Almería · 1.3 goals / match - Ceuta
Almería scores in 91% of matches (21 of 23 matches), while Ceuta keeps a clean sheet in 30% (7 of 23 matches).
Ceuta scores in 74% of matches (17 of 23 matches), while Almería keeps a clean sheet in 26% (6 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Almería
Over / Under - Ceuta
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Almería is 21% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.48 pts / match - Almería · 1.22 pts / match - Ceuta
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Almería - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ceuta - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Almería
Ceuta
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Segunda División).
Teams vs league
| Almería | Liga | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.22 | 2.53 | • 2.52 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 70% | 55% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 70% | 49% | ▲ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 26% | 28% | ▲ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 65% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 87% | 75% | ▼ 57% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Almería 0 - 0 - 1 Ceuta. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Almería vs Ceuta?
The Segunda División match finished Almería 4:2 Ceuta. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Almería vs Ceuta?
Almería score 1.78 goals per game on average and Ceuta 1.22. The Segunda División average is 2.53 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 70% of Almería's matches and 52% of Ceuta's.
What form are Almería and Ceuta in?
Over the last 5 games Almería have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Ceuta 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Almería vs Ceuta?
The statistical background for Almería vs Ceuta — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.