Almería vs Málaga CF: match statistics
Almería vs Málaga CF: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Almería played Málaga CF in Segunda División (Spain). The match was played on 20 June 2026. Venue: Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Almería: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Málaga CF: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Almería scores 1.89 and concedes 1.47 goals per match. Málaga CF scores 1.71 and concedes 1.18. League average: 2.63 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Almería 71%, Málaga CF 60%. Over 2.5: Almería 69%, Málaga CF 56%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Almería has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.60. Almería: 15.3 shots per match, Málaga CF: 14.0.
Match halves
Almería: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.04. Málaga CF: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.98.
Goals by minute
Almería: 76-90+ (21 goals). Málaga CF: 76-90+ (22 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Segunda División: 2.63 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 2.67, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Almería has a clear home offensive edge — averaging 2.5 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.91, 17.18 shots and 6.55 shots on target, and a 73% home win rate. Málaga on the road scores 1.55 goals on average (xG 1.41), averages 12.36 shots and 4.36 on target, and has a 45% away win rate, indicating lower chance creation. Defensively the visitors are slightly better in goals conceded (1.27 away vs 1.45 for the hosts), but Almería rarely finish scoreless at home — only 5% of matches without a goal versus Málaga’s 18% away. Recent form over the last 5 matches is similar: Almería 1.6 points per game (record 2-2-1), Málaga 1.8 points per game (2-3-0), so the home advantage stems mainly from better conversion (15% vs 13%) and greater volume of chances. Based on this I predict a home win as most likely, estimating 60% for the home side, 20% draw and 20% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal statistics favor BTTS: Almería has 65% of matches with both teams scoring, Málaga 55%, and the league average is 56%, which supports the "both teams to score" scenario. Almería averages 1.87 goals and has xG 1.79 with 6.43 shots on target (15.48 shots), while Málaga records 1.55 goals and xG 1.41 with 4.36 shots on target, so both sides create scoring opportunities. Both teams also concede: Almería 1.09 on average and Málaga 1.27 on average, with xG against of 1.35 and 1.55 respectively, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Note form: in the last 5 matches Málaga had 40% BTTS and conceded 0.4 goals on average (2 in 5), whereas Almería has 60% BTTS and conceded 1.2 goals in the last 5 (6 in 5), which slightly balances the risk but does not negate the home side's offensive signal. Considering the seasonal 65% vs 55%, the home xG advantage and overall goal averages, I assess BTTS probability at around 70% (30% against) and recommend a "yes" bet (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams have offensive profiles: Almería records 1.79 xG at home and averages 1.87 goals per match, while Málaga has 1.41 xG and 1.55 goals on the road. These levels, combined with the opponents' defenses (Málaga concedes 1.55 xG per match, Almería 1.35), yield expected goals of approximately 1.67 for the home side and 1.38 for the away side, totaling ≈3.05 goals. A distribution model on these means suggests ~81% chance of Over 1.5, ~59% for Over 2.5 and ~36% for Over 3.5, which aligns with seasonal Over 2.5 rates of 57% (Almería) and 55% (Málaga) and BTTS of 65% and 55%. Almería averages 6.43 shots on target versus Málaga’s 4.36, and with conversion rates of 12%/13% they create more chances, so the probability of crossing the 2.5 threshold increases. On this basis the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (the 'over' side) with a value edge at about 59% probability.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Seasonal data indicate an advantage for Almería — the home side led at the break in 48% of matches versus 32% for Málaga, with average first-half goals of 0.83 for Almería compared to 0.64 for the visitors. Additionally, Almería posts higher xG (1.79 vs 1.41) and records more shots on target (6.43 vs 4.36), increasing the likelihood of the hosts opening the scoring in the first half. Although in the last 5 matches Almería led at the break in only 20% of games versus Málaga’s 40%, the seasonal edge in goals per game (1.87 vs 1.55) and a higher average home points return (1.96 points per home match) support the hosts maintaining their lead. Almería also scores more after the break (1.04 vs 0.91 on average) and has an advantage in late goals (12 goals between the 76th and 90th minute vs 10 for Málaga), so the most likely HT/FT scenario is a lead at half-time and a win at full-time. Therefore I place the greatest weight on the 1/1 outcome.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Almería | Málaga CF | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Málaga CF is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Almería · 1.8 pts / match - Málaga CF
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Almería is 11% better for: goals scored per match.
1.89 goals / match - Almería · 1.71 goals / match - Málaga CF
Málaga CF is 25% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.47 goals / match - Almería · 1.18 goals / match - Málaga CF
Almería scores in 87% of matches (39 of 45 matches), while Málaga CF keeps a clean sheet in 29% (13 of 45 matches).
Málaga CF scores in 84% of matches (38 of 45 matches), while Almería keeps a clean sheet in 22% (10 of 45 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Almería
Over / Under - Málaga CF
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Málaga CF is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.51 pts / match - Almería · 1.58 pts / match - Málaga CF
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Almería - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 51%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Málaga CF - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 49%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (21 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (24). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (22 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Almería
Málaga CF
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Segunda División).
Teams vs league
| Almería | Liga | Málaga CF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.36 | 2.63 | ▲ 2.89 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 56% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 69% | 50% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 26% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 68% | • 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 87% | 75% | ▲ 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Almería 1 - 1 - 1 Málaga CF. Average goals 2.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Almería vs Málaga CF?
The Segunda División match finished Almería 1:2 Málaga CF. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Almería and Málaga CF?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Almería won 1, Málaga CF won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Almería vs Málaga CF?
Almería score 1.89 goals per game on average and Málaga CF 1.71. The Segunda División average is 2.63 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Almería's matches and 60% of Málaga CF's.
What form are Almería and Málaga CF in?
Over the last 5 games Almería have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Málaga CF 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Almería vs Málaga CF?
The statistical background for Almería vs Málaga CF — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.