Almirante Brown vs Acassuso: match statistics

Almirante Brown are significantly stronger at home, where they have won 60% of their matches and concede just 0.40 goals per game on average, keeping a clean sheet in 67% of their appearances. Acassuso score only 0.53 goals per away match, fail to score in 67% of games and have won just 7% of such fixtures. The hosts also create more chances: their average xG stands at 1.47 compared with 1.00 for the visitors, while they average 3.60 shots on target per game against 2.33 for their opponents. Recent form also favours Almirante Brown, who have collected 8 points from their last five matches, compared with just 4 for Acassuso. Both teams have scored 3 goals in their last five outings, but the hosts’ highly solid defence should be decisive in securing a narrow victory.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is not particularly strong, as the seasonal share of such matches is only 27% for Almirante Brown and 33% for Acassuso, compared with a league average of 39%. Acassuso scores just 0.53 goals per away match and failed to score in 67% of its games, which strongly supports the No Goal scenario for the visitors. Almirante Brown conceded an average of only 0.2 goals across its last five matches and recorded an overall 3:0 goals-against tally, although its opponent averages 2.33 shots on target. Both teams scored 3 goals in their last five appearances, averaging just 0.6 per match, while BTTS landed in 0% of the home team’s matches and 20% of the visitors’ matches during this period. Even with home xG of 1.19 and away xG of 1.00, the low conversion rates of 10% and 8%, respectively, increase the probability that at least one team will fail to score.

The profile of both teams clearly points to a game with limited chances: Almirante Brown average 0.87 goals per match, while Acassuso average just 0.53. In their last five matches, each team scored only 3 goals, with the hosts conceding just 1 goal during that period and the visitors 4. The 3.5-goal line has not been exceeded in any of Almirante Brown’s league matches, while games involving Acassuso have gone Over 3.5 goals in only 20% of cases. Additionally, only 27% of matches involving either team went Over 2.5 goals, and the league-wide average is a low 1.93 goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals has a very clear edge.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time, as Acassuso were level at the break in 11 of 15 matches, or 73% of cases, and have gone into half-time level in each of their last five games. Both teams are very low-scoring before the break: Almirante Brown average 0.40 goals and Acassuso only 0.20, with the corresponding total-goals averages standing at 0.67 and 0.73. The hosts have the overall match advantage, averaging 0.87 goals compared with their opponents’ 0.53, although their last five matches have produced just 0.60 goals scored per game. Acassuso lose as many as 60% of their matches but also draw 33%, while the low-scoring profile is reinforced by Almirante Brown keeping a clean sheet in 33% of matches and recording both teams to score in only 27%. Goals occur more frequently after half-time, but the hosts average just 0.47 goals in that period, making a 0-0 or 1-1 draw more likely than a clear victory for either side.