Almirante Brown vs Ciudad de Bolívar: match statistics

Almirante Brown are unbeaten in their last five matches, earning 9 points and conceding just 1 goal, while Ciudad de Bolívar have suffered 2 defeats and conceded 7 goals over the same period. The hosts win 58% of their home matches and create chances worth an average xG of 1.44, clearly superior to the 1.01 recorded by the visitors away from home. The difference in defensive quality could also prove crucial: Bolívar allow opponents an xG of 1.68 per away match, although they have actually conceded just 0.45 goals. However, the visitors are difficult to beat on the road, losing only 9% of matches and keeping a clean sheet in 73% of them, which increases the likelihood of a closely contested, low-scoring encounter. Almirante Brown’s superior current form and higher number of shots at home—10.42 compared with the visitors’ 7.55—give the hosts a slight edge.

The signal for at least one team failing to score is clear, as Ciudad de Bolívar keeps a clean sheet in 73% of matches and concedes just 0.45 goals per game on average. Almirante Brown scores only 0.92 goals per home game on average, while in their last five matches they have scored 4 goals in total, or 0.8 per match. The hosts are also highly solid defensively in their current form: they have conceded just 1 goal in their last five appearances, averaging 0.2, which further limits the visitors’ chances. Almirante Brown’s BTTS rate in their last five matches was only 20%, while across the league season both teams have scored in just 40% of matches. Although Bolívar recorded a 60% BTTS rate in their last five matches and scored 1.2 goals per game, the low-scoring profile and the hosts’ defence provide stronger support for the BTTS - No scenario.

The profile of both teams clearly points towards a low-scoring outcome: 67% of Almirante Brown’s matches and as many as 82% of Ciudad de Bolívar’s games finished with Under 2.5 goals. The signal is even stronger for the 3.5 line, which was not exceeded in 83% and 91% of their matches, respectively. The visitors concede just 0.45 goals per game on average and keep a clean sheet in 73% of their appearances, limiting the potential of the hosts, who score 0.92 goals per season on average. Almirante Brown are also in a strong defensive spell, having conceded just 1 goal in their last five matches, or 0.2 per game. Although the xG figures for both sides suggest isolated chances, the projected total of 1.77 goals leaves a very substantial safety margin for selecting Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: Almirante Brown were level at the break in 67% of their matches, while Ciudad de Bolívar were level in 55%, with these teams averaging just 1.00 and 0.64 goals respectively in the first halves. The visitors are particularly effective at securing the early stages of matches, conceding only 0.18 goals per game before half-time and keeping a clean sheet at the break in 82% of their appearances. A stalemate at full-time is supported by the low scoring averages: the hosts score 0.92 goals per match, the visitors 0.91, while Ciudad de Bolívar keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches. Almirante Brown are also unbeaten in their last five matches, drawing three of them and conceding just 0.2 goals on average, which limits the visitors’ advantage despite their 55% win rate this season. The most likely scenario, therefore, remains a cautious draw at half-time that does not turn into a turnaround in the second half.