Almirante Brown vs San Miguel: match statistics

Almirante Brown have won 56% of their home matches, while San Miguel have claimed victory in just 6% of their away games, pointing to an advantage for the hosts. Almirante Brown concede an average of 0.44 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 63% of matches, while the visitors score only 0.69 goals per away game. The hosts also create more chances: their average home xG is 1.50, compared with San Miguel’s 1.07 on the road. However, caution is warranted, as Almirante Brown have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches and have not won any of them. San Miguel are also winless over this period, while their 50% away draw rate increases the likelihood of the points being shared.

The strongest signal against both teams scoring comes from San Miguel’s attack: the visitors average 0.69 goals per match and have failed to score in 44% of their games. Almirante Brown keep a clean sheet in 38% of matches, further increasing the risk that the visitors will be held scoreless. The hosts also have limited attacking output, averaging 0.88 goals and scoring just 2 goals in total across their last 5 matches. Although San Miguel concede an average of 1.44 goals and BTTS - Yes landed in 80% of their last 5 matches, the figure for Almirante Brown was just 20%. With season-long BTTS rates of 44% and 50% for the two teams, compared with a league average of 39%, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).

The strongest signal is for Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 100% of Almirante Brown’s home matches and 87% of San Miguel’s away matches. Both teams average fewer than one goal per game — 0.88 and 0.69, respectively — while the league average is 1.94 goals. Although the hosts’ xG of 1.61 suggests greater potential than their actual goals tally, San Miguel failed to score in 44% of their away matches. In their last five games, the hosts averaged 0.4 goals and the visitors 0.8, further reducing the likelihood of four goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals has a clearer edge than the other lines considered.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: San Miguel were level at the break in 69% of matches, compared with 44% for Almirante Brown; over their last five games, the figures were 80% and 60%, respectively. Both teams average just 0.25 goals before half-time, and San Miguel failed to score in the first half in each of their last five matches. The hosts should gain the advantage after the break, as San Miguel concede an average of 1.06 goals in the second half, while Almirante Brown score 0.63. The hosts’ higher xG (1.61 versus 1.07) and win rate (31% versus 6%) also point to a home victory. Neither team has won any of their last five matches, which increases the risk of a draw at full-time; however, the combination of frequent half-time draws and the visitors’ weaker second-half defence most strongly supports the X/1 scenario.