Alta vs Naples: match statistics

Alta have a clear home advantage: they average 1.67 goals scored and just 0.83 conceded at home, while Naples score 1.00 goal away from home and allow opponents 1.90. The hosts also create more high-quality chances, with an xG of 1.73 compared to the visitors’ 1.49, and average 5 shots on target per match against Naples’ 3.4. Alta’s defence keeps a clean sheet in 50% of home matches, whereas Naples have done so in just 10% of away fixtures and have lost as many as 80% of those games. Both teams are in poor current form, with Alta taking 4 points from their last five matches and Naples 3, but the visitors have lost 4 of their last 5 games and conceded 10 goals in that run. A draw remains a realistic outcome given Alta’s 50% home draw rate, but the defensive and away-efficiency figures point more strongly towards the hosts.

Naples have recorded BTTS in 60% of their matches, while Alta have done so in 40%, compared with a league average of 56%, providing a moderately positive signal for both teams to score. The hosts create an average of 1.50 xG, while Naples allow opponents 1.62 xG and concede as many as 1.9 goals per match, making an Alta goal highly likely. The visitors, in turn, generate 1.49 xG, rising to 1.56 over their last five matches, while Alta allowed opponents 1.74 xG over the same period. The main limitation for this selection is Naples’ attack, which scores only 1.0 goal per match on average and have failed to score in 30% of their matches; however, Alta’s recent defensive weakness increases the chance of a breakthrough. The most likely scenario therefore remains a goal for each side, although the edge over BTTS - No is not substantial.

Alta should create more chances, as their average xG stands at 1.50, while Naples concede an average of 1.90 goals and allow opponents 1.62 xG per match. However, the visitors score only 1.00 goal per game, while Alta keep a clean sheet in 40% of matches, limiting the potential for a very high-scoring game. In their last five appearances, both teams went Over 2.5 goals in 60% of cases, but neither has gone Over 3.5 goals in more than 30% of matches throughout the season. Additionally, Alta have not scored more than two goals in any match this season, while Naples score Over 1.5 goals in only 20% of games. The projected total of 2.80 goals points to a chance of three goals being scored, but the Under 3.5 line has a clearer edge.

Alta have a clear advantage over the course of the season: they score an average of 1.3 goals per match and win 50% of their games, while Naples win just 10% and concede an average of 1.9 goals. The hosts held a lead at the break in 5 of their 10 matches, while the visitors were trailing at half-time in 50% of their games, scoring just 0.3 goals per match before the break. The gap is also supported by chance quality: Alta’s xG stands at 1.50, while Naples allow opponents an xG of 1.62. In their last five matches, Naples have conceded an average of 2.0 goals and lost 80% of their games, making Alta to lead at half-time and win at the final whistle the most likely HT/FT outcome.