Altay vs Kaisar: match statistics

Altay remain winless in their last five matches, recording 1 draw and 4 defeats, while Kaisar have an almost identically poor run: 1 win and 4 defeats. The hosts draw as many as 55% of their home matches and lose only 36%, whereas Kaisar suffer defeat in 50% of their away games. Altay create slightly better chances at home, with an average xG of 1.34 compared to Kaisar’s 1.24 away from home, and also score an average of 0.91 goals per match compared to their opponents’ 0.80. However, both teams have major issues with finishing, failing to score in 45% and 50% of matches respectively, which points towards a low-scoring outcome. Altay’s defence concedes an average of 1.27 goals at home, clearly fewer than Kaisar’s 1.50 away from home, but the poor current form of both sides increases the likelihood of a draw.

The BTTS signal is primarily strengthened by current form: in their last 5 matches, both teams conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game, while BTTS occurred in 80% of Altay’s matches and as many as 100% of Kaisar’s. During this period, Kaisar scored an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Altay scored 1.0; however, the opponent kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their season matches. The hosts have a season BTTS rate of 69%, above the league average of 55%, and their xG from the last five matches stands at 1.67. Kaisar also creates enough chances, averaging 1.50 xG across their last five matches, while Altay allowed 1.73 xG during this period. Although Kaisar failed to score in 50% of their matches this season, their clear attacking improvement and the defensive weaknesses of both teams point more strongly towards a goal for each side — BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal — rather than BTTS - No / No Goal.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as this threshold was surpassed in 69% of Altay’s matches and 80% of Kaisar’s games this season. Both teams have clearly increased the tempo in their last five outings: Altay conceded an average of 2.4 goals, while Kaisar simultaneously scored 2.0 goals per match. Their attacking potential is also supported by current xG figures: 1.67 for the hosts and 1.50 for the visitors, with xGA at 1.73 and 1.69 respectively. On a season-long basis, matches more often stayed below 2.5 goals, as this occurred in 62% of Altay’s games and 60% of Kaisar’s, which is why higher lines carry greater risk. However, two goals are a very realistic scenario given the projected total of 2.95 goals and both teams’ weak defensive form at present.

The strongest signal points to Kaisar leading at the break and maintaining their advantage through to the end of the match. In their last five matches, Altay were trailing at half-time in as many as 80% of cases, scoring an average of just 0.2 goals before the interval, while Kaisar scored 1.0 goal per game during this period and held a half-time lead in 40% of their matches. Kaisar also have a clearly superior current attacking strength: across their last five appearances, they averaged 2.0 goals compared with Altay’s 1.0, while both teams conceded an identical average of 2.4 goals. The hosts have not won any of their last five matches, whereas the visitors recorded their only victory during this period, and their season xG stands at 1.24 compared with Altay’s 1.21. Both teams are defensively unstable, so the draw-at-half-time and away-win scenario remains a significant alternative; however, Altay’s poor recent first-half performances strengthen the 2/2 scenario.