Altrincham vs Eastleigh: match statistics
Altrincham vs Eastleigh: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Altrincham played Eastleigh in National League (England). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Altrincham: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Eastleigh: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Altrincham scores 1.14 and concedes 1.47 goals per match. Eastleigh scores 1.28 and concedes 1.81. League average: 2.93 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Altrincham 60%, Eastleigh 70%. Over 2.5: Altrincham 56%, Eastleigh 60%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 57%.
xG, shots and style
Altrincham has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.30. Altrincham: 11.3 shots per match, Eastleigh: 9.3.
Match halves
Altrincham: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.53. Eastleigh: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.79.
Goals by minute
Altrincham: 31-45+ (12 goals). Eastleigh: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National League: 2.93 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 57%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win (Altrincham). Altrincham have a 52% home win rate and a positive home goal difference (+2), while Eastleigh win only 24% of away matches and have a negative away goal difference (-12). The hosts create more chances and are more efficient offensively: on average 12.43 shots and 4.76 on target at home with xG 1.60, versus 9.57 shots, 3.81 on target and xG 1.29 for Eastleigh away. Defensively Altrincham concede 1.29 goals on average at home versus 1.71 conceded by Eastleigh away, and the clean sheet rate is 19% for the hosts versus 38% for the visitors, which gives the hosts a defensive and offensive edge. Both teams are however in poor form over the last 5 matches (Altrincham 0.4 pts and goal difference 4-7; Eastleigh 0.8 pts and 7-11), so I give the hosts a moderate advantage — 60% chance to win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Altrincham has BTTS in 82% of their matches this season, Eastleigh in 57%, and the league average is 56%, which strongly supports a Goal/Goal scenario. Seasonal goal averages are 1.41 scored and 1.91 conceded for the home side and 1.14 scored and 1.71 conceded for the visitors, indicating both sides regularly create and concede chances. In the last 5 matches both teams show BTTS at 60%, but note Eastleigh failed to score in 38% of their season matches versus 14% for Altrincham, which increases the risk of a No Goal from the away team. xG metrics show similar attacking potential: xG for 1.32 (Altrincham) vs 1.29 (Eastleigh) and xG against 1.68 vs 1.87, while clean sheets are rare (5% and 10%), which also favors BTTS. Considering the very high home BTTS rate (82%), frequent over 2.5 goal matches (68% for Altrincham, 52% for Eastleigh) and low clean sheet percentages, I select BTTS - Yes as the most likely outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Calculated xG and defensive metrics indicate high goal potential: (Altrincham attack xG 1.32 + Eastleigh conceded xG 1.87)/2 ≈ 1.60 for the home side and (Eastleigh attack xG 1.29 + Altrincham conceded xG 1.68)/2 ≈ 1.48 for the visitors, yielding a combined ~3.08 expected goals. Historical rates confirm a propensity for goals — Altrincham has 100% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Eastleigh 76%, and BTTS stands at 82% and 57% respectively — hence an estimated ~81% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5). The Over 2.5 level is also meaningful: season Over25 is 68% for the home team and 52% for the away team against a league average of 56%, which aligns with the model giving roughly a 59% chance for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is less likely (season Over35: 36% and 38%; model ≈37%), so I prefer the lower line. Conclusion: the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (back the Over 1.5 line), with additional value potential on Over 2.5 if the price is attractive.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw with a home-win at Full-Time (X/1). Hosts were level at the break in 55% of matches versus 43% for visitors, so HT draws are common; additionally, hosts score on average 0.95 goals after the break compared to 0.62 for away teams, and in 95% of home fixtures at least one goal is scored after half-time (vs. 76% for visitors), which favors a decision following the second half. Furthermore, the home side exhibits higher shot conversion (16% on 1.32 xG) versus 12% on 1.29 xG for the away side, and a higher average points per match (1.18 vs. 0.95), suggesting that when the score is level at HT they are more likely to convert opportunities into a victory. Nonetheless, one must account for the hosts’ poor form in their last five matches (0% wins) and the visitors’ 20% win rate over the same period, so I also assign moderate weight to the X/X and X/2 variants as alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Altrincham | Eastleigh | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Eastleigh is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Altrincham · 0.8 pts / match - Eastleigh
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Eastleigh is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
1.14 goals / match - Altrincham · 1.28 goals / match - Eastleigh
Altrincham is 23% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.47 goals / match - Altrincham · 1.81 goals / match - Eastleigh
Altrincham scores in 79% of matches (34 of 43 matches), while Eastleigh keeps a clean sheet in 7% (3 of 43 matches).
Eastleigh scores in 74% of matches (32 of 43 matches), while Altrincham keeps a clean sheet in 21% (9 of 43 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Altrincham
Over / Under - Eastleigh
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Altrincham is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.4 pts / match - Altrincham · 1.05 pts / match - Eastleigh
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Altrincham - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 33%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Eastleigh - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (20). Late-goal balance (76-90): -11 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (20). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Altrincham
Eastleigh
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National League).
Teams vs league
| Altrincham | Liga | Eastleigh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.60 | 2.93 | ▲ 3.09 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 57% | ▲ 70% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 56% | 57% | ▲ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 24% | ▼ 7% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 71% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 82% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Altrincham 0 - 0 - 1 Eastleigh. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Altrincham vs Eastleigh?
The National League match finished Altrincham 1:0 Eastleigh. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Altrincham vs Eastleigh?
Altrincham score 1.14 goals per game on average and Eastleigh 1.28. The National League average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 57% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Altrincham's matches and 70% of Eastleigh's.
What form are Altrincham and Eastleigh in?
Over the last 5 games Altrincham have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Eastleigh 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Altrincham vs Eastleigh?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.