Aluminij vs Nafta: match statistics

Nafta sit top of the table, while Aluminij are 9th, and the difference is reflected in their current form: the visitors have collected 10 points from their last 5 matches, compared with just 2 for the hosts. Aluminij have scored only 1 goal during this period and have failed to win any of their five games, whereas Nafta have netted 9 goals and won 3 times. At home, the hosts are yet to score, averaging 9 shots per match, with only 3 on target. By contrast, Nafta average 3 goals per away game from 14 shots, 8 of which are on target. The visitors also have a higher average xG of 1.81 compared with Aluminij’s 1.17, although their xG against stands at 2.45, giving the hosts a realistic chance of ending their scoring drought. However, Nafta’s strongest argument remains their perfect record in their only away match so far, along with a clean sheet, while Aluminij have struggled in front of goal.

The strongest signal against BTTS comes from Aluminija’s recent form: they have scored just 1 goal in five matches, averaging 0.2 per game, with both teams scoring in only 20% of those fixtures. Nafta are in significantly better shape, having netted 9 goals in their last five appearances while conceding just 4, so they have solid grounds to score, but this does not guarantee a goal from the hosts. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far this season, while BTTS has occurred in none of their games; for Aluminija, this figure stands at just 50%. Although Aluminija have recently created chances worth an average of 1.47 xG, their very poor finishing and Nafta’s defensive strength support a scenario in which at least one team fails to score—BTTS - No.

Aluminij are in very poor offensive form: they have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while Nafta have conceded 4 goals during this period. The visitors have been more effective, with 9 goals in five matches and an average of 1.8 goals per game, although their recent fixtures have not been particularly open. Over 2.5 goals landed in just 20% of Aluminij’s last five matches and 40% of Nafta’s games, compared with the league average of 43%. The combined current xG of both teams—1.47 for the hosts and 1.57 for the visitors—suggests a result closer to two than four goals. The Under 3.5 goals line offers the greatest edge, as a projected total of 2.25 goals would require at least four goals to be scored, which is not supported by Aluminij’s form data.

Nafta are in clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.8 goals and won 60% of their games, while Aluminij scored just 0.2 goals on average, recorded no victories and lost 60% of their matches. Before half-time, the hosts failed to score in any of those five games and went into the break trailing in 60% of them; Nafta led at the break in 40% of their matches and conceded an average of only 0.4 goals during that period. The difference is also reflected in their season-long attacking potential: the visitors generate an xG of 1.81 and average 8 shots on target, compared with Aluminij’s 1.61 xG and 7 shots on target, while the hosts allow opponents an xG of 2.04. Nafta kept a clean sheet in 60% of their last first halves and 60% of their second halves, while Aluminij scored just 0.2 goals after the break across their last five matches. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that the visitors lead at half-time and go on to win at full-time: HT/FT 2/2.