Aluminium Arak vs Esteghlal: match statistics

Aluminium Arak remain unbeaten in the league, recording 3 wins and 2 draws with a goal difference of 8:3, although both of their home fixtures so far have ended in draws. Esteghlal have shown an even more consistent run: they have won 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches, conceding just 1 goal, while the hosts have scored 8 and conceded 3 during the same period. The visitors’ defence looks particularly solid, as they have not conceded a goal all season and have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their away matches. At the same time, Esteghlal average just 0.5 goals per game away from home, while Aluminium Arak are also unbeaten at home and concede an average of 1 goal there. The combination of the visitors’ defensive strength and the hosts’ tendency to draw points towards a balanced, likely low-scoring draw.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams have recorded 0% of matches with goals scored by both sides so far, while the league produces this outcome in only 31% of matches. Esteghlal have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their away matches to date and have conceded 0 goals in total, clearly limiting Aluminium Arak’s chances of scoring. Aluminium Arak also have a 100% clean-sheet record at home, while Esteghlal average just 0.5 goals per away match. The last five fixtures show slightly higher BTTS figures—40% for the hosts and 20% for the visitors—but the defenses have still conceded only 0.6 and 0.2 goals on average, respectively. A result in which at least one team fails to score is therefore more likely than a goal exchange.

The league profile clearly favors low-scoring outcomes: the average across all matches is just 1.82 goals, while the 2.5-goal line has been surpassed in only 23% of games. Aluminium Arak have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in their last five appearances, while Esteghlal have scored 1.8 goals but allowed opponents just 0.2. The away side have kept a clean sheet in all of their matches away from home so far, and both teams record a low share of games in which both sides score: 40% and 20%, respectively, over their last five matches. Although Aluminium recorded Over 3.5 goals in 50% of their matches in the limited home sample, Esteghlal’s defensive stability and the league-wide context significantly reduce the likelihood of four goals. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5 goals, with a projected total of 2.05 goals in the match.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw after 90 minutes, as both teams were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, equating to 60% of cases. Both defences have been highly stable: Aluminium Arak conceded an average of 0.6 goals across their last five matches, while Esteghlal conceded just 0.2, with the visitors keeping a clean sheet in 4 of their 5 first halves. The league averages only 1.82 goals per match, while the percentage of games in which both teams score stands at 31%, supporting a cautious, low-scoring game. Esteghlal are unbeaten in their last five outings and won 4 of them, meaning the HT/FT draw/away win scenario remains the second major threat to the X/X selection.