Alverca vs Casa Pia: match statistics
Alverca vs Casa Pia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Alverca played Casa Pia in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 12 April 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Alverca: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Casa Pia: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Alverca scores 1.04 and concedes 1.64 goals per match. Casa Pia scores 1.00 and concedes 1.81. League average: 2.71 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Alverca 57%, Casa Pia 48%. Over 2.5: Alverca 54%, Casa Pia 48%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Alverca has higher xG: 1.16 vs 0.95. Alverca: 9.9 shots per match, Casa Pia: 8.4.
Match halves
Alverca: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.61. Casa Pia: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.52.
Goals by minute
Alverca: 76-90+ (11 goals). Casa Pia: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.71 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Alverca are the favorites for this match: the hosts sit 10th, have scored 29 goals this season and average 0.86 goals at home with an average xG of 1.28, while Casa Pia are 16th, have 27 goals this season and record only 0.71 goals away with an xG of 0.98. Alverca create more chances — on average 11 shots and 3.71 on target per home match with a conversion rate of 8%, compared to 9.07 shots and 2.79 on target for the visitors with the same 8% conversion; additionally Casa Pia fail to score in 57% of away games, whereas Alverca fail to score in only 29% of home matches. Defensively the hosts are also stronger: Alverca concede 1.43 goals per home game and keep 36% clean sheets, while Casa Pia concede 1.86 goals away and record clean sheets in only 29% of matches. In the last 5 matches Alverca have scored 6 goals and have a record of 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss (average 1.2 points per game), while Casa Pia have scored just 2 goals, have not won any of the five and average 0.6 points per game. Considering the home advantage in chance creation, superior xG metrics and more solid defense, I assign Alverca a 62% probability to win, 23% for a draw and 15% for a Casa Pia win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The statistics send mixed signals: Alverca has a season BTTS of 69% and BTTS 80% in the last 5 matches, whereas Casa Pia has a season BTTS of 29% and 40% in the last 5 — this on one hand is a strong argument for BTTS - Yes for the hosts, and on the other for No for the visitors. Casa Pia averages only 0.71 goals per season and 0.4 in the last 5, and fails to score in 57% of season matches, which clearly reduces the probability of BTTS. Alverca is recently generating 1.55 xG per match (last 5) versus 0.84 xG for Casa Pia, averages 7.69 shots and 2.62 on target and has a high conversion rate of 17%, so the hosts are likely to score; conversely both teams have significant defensive issues (Alverca conceded 46 goals, Casa Pia 49), which theoretically increases the risk of goals from both sides. Weighing these factors together — Alverca’s strong scoring ability versus Casa Pia’s poor scoring form — I assign BTTS 'yes' 35% and 'no' 65% and select 'no' as the top pick.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Season statistics show Alverca scores on average 1.31 goals and concedes 1.77 per match, while Casa Pia scores 0.71 and concedes 1.86, with offensive xG of 0.91 (Alverca) and 0.98 (Casa Pia) and xG against of 1.58 and 1.64. A strong signal for Over 1.5 goals is that the percentage of matches above 1.5 is 92% for Alverca and 79% for Casa Pia, and the league average is 2.73 goals per match. Considering seasonal and recent form (last 5 matches: xG Alverca 1.55 vs Casa Pia 0.84 and goals scored in the last 5 matches 6 for the home side and 2 for the away side), I calculate about 1.43 goals for Alverca and 1.27 for Casa Pia (total 2.70). At this total I assign a strong probability to Over 1.5 at 88% (vs 12%), a moderate edge to Over 2.5 at 54% (vs 46%), and a low chance for Over 3.5 at 34% (vs 66%), therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Alverca led at the break in 38% of their matches and averaged 0.77 goals in the first half, while Casa Pia manages only 0.21 first-half goals, which strongly indicates a home lead at the break. However, Alverca wins only 15% of their fixtures this season and concedes an average of 1.08 goals after the break, while visitors score an average of 0.50 goals in the second half, so the first-half advantage is often not maintained. The hosts also have a high draw rate: 54% of Alverca’s matches end level, and their home form in the last five is d d d l w (three draws, one loss, one win), whereas Casa Pia has not won in their last five (l d d l d). As a result, the strongest signal is the scenario of Alverca leading at Half-Time and the match finishing as a draw at Full-Time (1/X), which I therefore assign the highest probability.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Alverca | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Alverca is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Alverca · 0.6 pts / match - Casa Pia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Alverca is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.64 goals / match - Alverca · 1.81 goals / match - Casa Pia
Alverca scores in 75% of matches (21 of 28 matches), while Casa Pia keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 27 matches).
Casa Pia scores in 56% of matches (15 of 27 matches), while Alverca keeps a clean sheet in 21% (6 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Alverca
Over / Under - Casa Pia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Alverca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Casa Pia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 19%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Alverca
Casa Pia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Alverca | Liga | Casa Pia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.68 | 2.71 | ▲ 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 47% | • 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 54% | 55% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 30% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 68% | 70% | • 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 79% | • 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Alverca 1 - 0 - 0 Casa Pia. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Alverca vs Casa Pia?
The Liga NOS match finished Alverca 3:1 Casa Pia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca score 1.04 goals per game on average and Casa Pia 1.00. The Liga NOS average is 2.71 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Alverca's matches and 48% of Casa Pia's.
What form are Alverca and Casa Pia in?
Over the last 5 games Alverca have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Casa Pia 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Alverca vs Casa Pia?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.