Alverca vs Estrela Amadora: match statistics
Alverca displays significantly better home form with a 50% win rate at their own stadium, while Estrela Amadora wins only 22% of their away matches. The hosts hold the advantage in ball possession (46% vs 41%) and boast a superior shot accuracy (8% vs 15% with fewer attempts), indicating better game organization. Estrela Amadora has a very high rate of away matches without a scored goal (56%) and concedes an average of 2.11 goals per away game. This, combined with Alverca's solid home defense (40% clean sheets at home), gives the hosts a clear advantage. The recent form of both teams is average, but Alverca has a better points-per-game record in the last 5 matches (1.2 vs 1.0 PPG). The xG differential confirms the hosts' superiority, as they create more scoring chances in home matches.
Alverca vs Estrela Amadora: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Alverca played Estrela Amadora in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 31 January 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Alverca: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Estrela Amadora: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Alverca scores 1.00 and concedes 1.74 goals per match. Estrela Amadora scores 1.21 and concedes 1.89. League average: 2.77 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Alverca 42%, Estrela Amadora 47%. Over 2.5: Alverca 58%, Estrela Amadora 58%. League level: BTTS 44%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Estrela Amadora has higher xG: 1.15 vs 1.10. Alverca: 9.3 shots per match, Estrela Amadora: 10.8.
Match halves
Alverca: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.63. Estrela Amadora: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.58.
Goals by minute
Alverca: 76-90+ (8 goals). Estrela Amadora: 61-75 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.77 goals per match, BTTS 44%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Alverca displays significantly better home form with a 50% win rate at their own stadium, while Estrela Amadora wins only 22% of their away matches. The hosts hold the advantage in ball possession (46% vs 41%) and boast a superior shot accuracy (8% vs 15% with fewer attempts), indicating better game organization. Estrela Amadora has a very high rate of away matches without a scored goal (56%) and concedes an average of 2.11 goals per away game. This, combined with Alverca's solid home defense (40% clean sheets at home), gives the hosts a clear advantage. The recent form of both teams is average, but Alverca has a better points-per-game record in the last 5 matches (1.2 vs 1.0 PPG). The xG differential confirms the hosts' superiority, as they create more scoring chances in home matches.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Alverca | Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Alverca is 20% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Alverca · 1 pts / match - Estrela Amadora
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Estrela Amadora is 21% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Alverca · 1.21 goals / match - Estrela Amadora
Alverca is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.74 goals / match - Alverca · 1.89 goals / match - Estrela Amadora
Alverca scores in 68% of matches (13 of 19 matches), while Estrela Amadora keeps a clean sheet in 21% (4 of 19 matches).
Estrela Amadora scores in 53% of matches (10 of 19 matches), while Alverca keeps a clean sheet in 26% (5 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Alverca
Over / Under - Estrela Amadora
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Alverca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Estrela Amadora - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 21%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -7 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Alverca
Estrela Amadora
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Alverca | Liga | Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.74 | 2.77 | ▲ 3.11 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 42% | 44% | ▲ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 58% | 55% | ▲ 58% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 26% | 30% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 68% | 73% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 78% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Alverca 0 - 1 - 0 Estrela Amadora. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Alverca vs Estrela Amadora?
The Liga NOS match finished Alverca 1:1 Estrela Amadora. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Alverca vs Estrela Amadora?
Alverca score 1.00 goals per game on average and Estrela Amadora 1.21. The Liga NOS average is 2.77 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Alverca's matches and 47% of Estrela Amadora's.
What form are Alverca and Estrela Amadora in?
Over the last 5 games Alverca have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Estrela Amadora 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Alverca vs Estrela Amadora?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Alverca vs Estrela Amadora: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.