Amagaju vs Muhanga: match statistics
Amagaju vs Muhanga: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Amagaju played Muhanga in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match was played on 22 May 2026. Venue: Nyagisenyi Stadium. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Amagaju: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Muhanga: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Amagaju scores 0.59 and concedes 1.13 goals per match. Muhanga scores 0.66 and concedes 1.31. League average: 2.10 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Amagaju 28%, Muhanga 34%. Over 2.5: Amagaju 22%, Muhanga 34%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 37%.
xG, shots and style
Muhanga has higher xG: 0.99 vs 0.96. Amagaju: 5.9 shots per match, Muhanga: 5.5.
Match halves
Amagaju: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.28. Muhanga: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.25.
Goals by minute
Amagaju: 31-45+ (5 goals). Muhanga: 16-30 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 2.10 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 37%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Amagaju has a small but meaningful defensive edge: the hosts concede on average 1.25 goals at home versus 1.60 conceded by Muhanga away, and average xG against is 0.96 vs 1.45 (difference 0.49 xG), indicating a more stable Amagaju defense. Offensive differences are minimal – Amagaju registers xG for 1.10 versus Muhanga’s 1.07 and scores on average 0.56 goals per home match versus 0.53 for the visitors away, with the hosts failing to score in 56% of home matches and the visitors in 60% of away matches. Muhanga, however, has more shots on target per match (2.46 vs 1.93) and slightly higher conversion rate (9% vs 8%), which together with the visitors’ lower average possession (46% vs 50%) suggests the away side play more directly and are more dangerous on quick transitions. Both teams have similar form (last 5: both 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses and 1.4 points on average), a low number of clean sheets (13% each) and poor finishing, so I expect a low-scoring, tight game. Considering the hosts’ better defense and marginal advantages in xG and possession, I tip Amagaju to win; proposed probability distribution is Home 48%, Draw 30%, Away 22%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Amagaju averages 0.76 goals per game, Muhanga 0.53, totaling only 1.29 goals with combined xG 0.93 + 1.07 = 2.00, indicating poor finishing. Seasonal BTTS rates are low: Amagaju 41% and Muhanga 27%, and in the last 5 matches BTTS was only 20% for Amagaju and 40% for Muhanga (average 30%), suggesting a trend toward No Goal outcomes. Muhanga does concede 1.6 goals per game (Amagaju 1.06), but shot volume and conversion are low (Amagaju 1.69 on-target shots and 14% conversion, Muhanga 2.46 and 9%), so mutual finishing opportunities are limited. Additionally, the league has a high clean sheet rate of 68% and an average goals per game of 2.1, which reinforces the scenario that at least one team will not score; therefore I assess BTTS as less likely (BTTS - Yes 30% / No 70%) and recommend a "No" bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate a 60% probability of Over 1.5 goals (40% Under), 35% probability of Over 2.5 (65% Under) and 7% probability of Over 3.5 (93% Under). Expected goals are calculated as 1.18 for Amagaju (scoring average 0.76 combined with Muhanga’s conceding average 1.60) and 0.80 for Muhanga (scoring average 0.53 vs Amagaju’s defense 1.06), total 1.98 goals. xG supports a moderate number of chances: home xG 0.93 vs xG against Muhanga 1.45, and away xG 1.07 vs xG against Amagaju 1.13; in the last 5 matches xG was 1.14 (Amagaju) and 0.94 (Muhanga). Seasonal profiles show Over 1.5 in 53% of Amagaju’s matches and 67% of Muhanga’s (average 60%), while Over 2.5 is only 29%/40% (average 35%) and Over 3.5 merely 6–7%. Therefore the strongest and most consistent signal from the data is a play on Over 1.5 (probability ~60%), whereas the 2.5 line favors Under given the low frequency above 2.5 and the expected 1.98 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I project X/1 (draw at half-time, Amagaju win full-time). A half-time draw is the natural scenario: in the last five matches for both teams an HT draw occurred in 60% of cases, and this season Amagaju led at the break in 6 matches (35%) versus only 2 (13%) for Muhanga. After the break the balance favors Amagaju due to greater offensive effectiveness and the visitors’ defensive frailty — Amagaju scores on average 0.29 goals in the second half, while Muhanga concedes on average 0.87 goals in the second half; additionally Amagaju averages 1.12 points per home match versus Muhanga’s 0.73 points away. Although xG indicates a slightly higher expectation for Muhanga (1.07 versus 0.93 for Amagaju), Muhanga’s poorer shot conversion (9% vs 14%) and their average of 1.6 goals conceded per match increase the hosts’ chance of turning the result around after the break. On that basis I assigned the X/1 scenario the highest probability (18%), and distributed the remainder of the probabilities conservatively due to the league’s low goals average (2.1) and the high share of clean sheets (68%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Amagaju | Muhanga | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 27% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Muhanga is 12% better for: goals scored per match.
0.59 goals / match - Amagaju · 0.66 goals / match - Muhanga
Amagaju is 16% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.13 goals / match - Amagaju · 1.31 goals / match - Muhanga
Amagaju scores in 44% of matches (14 of 32 matches), while Muhanga keeps a clean sheet in 22% (7 of 32 matches).
Muhanga scores in 50% of matches (16 of 32 matches), while Amagaju keeps a clean sheet in 28% (9 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Amagaju
Over / Under - Muhanga
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Muhanga is 16% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.94 pts / match - Amagaju · 1.09 pts / match - Muhanga
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Amagaju - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Muhanga - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Amagaju
Muhanga
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Amagaju | Liga | Muhanga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.72 | 2.10 | ▼ 1.97 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 28% | 45% | ▼ 34% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 22% | 37% | ▼ 34% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 28% | 34% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 59% | 61% | ▲ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 59% | 70% | ▼ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Amagaju 1 - 0 - 0 Muhanga. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Amagaju vs Muhanga?
The National Soccer League match finished Amagaju 0:2 Muhanga. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Amagaju vs Muhanga?
Amagaju score 0.59 goals per game on average and Muhanga 0.66. The National Soccer League average is 2.10 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 37% of games. Both teams score in 28% of Amagaju's matches and 34% of Muhanga's.
What form are Amagaju and Muhanga in?
Over the last 5 games Amagaju have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Muhanga 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Amagaju vs Muhanga?
The statistical background for Amagaju vs Muhanga — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.