Amarante vs CF Os Belenenses: match statistics

I predict an away victory because CF Os Belenenses shows a clear offensive edge: they average 1.79 goals on the road versus 1.29 for the home side in home matches, with more shots 10.43 vs 8.29 and 4.14 on target vs 3.0. The visitors also deliver better quality chances by xG — Belenenses’ average xG is 1.34 compared to 1.09 for Amarante, and the conversion rate is 17% vs 16%, translating into greater goal threat. Amarante, however, defends better at home, conceding only 0.86 goals per game and recording 43% clean sheets, but the hosts fail to score in 14% of home matches while the visitors have 0% games without scoring away (they always score on the road). In the last 5 matches Amarante has 3 wins and 2 draws, averaging 2.2 points per game, while Belenenses has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss averaging 2.0 points per game; season-to-date the visitors have 17 wins vs 15 for hosts, 44 goals vs 35 and a +11 goal difference away compared to +6 at home, giving them a marginal advantage. Considering the higher xG, more shots and the fact that the visitors have never finished an away match without scoring, I assess Belenenses as the favorite, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.

In the last 5 matches Amarante had BTTS in 80% of fixtures, and CF Os Belenenses in 60%, yielding a strong short-term signal for both teams (average 70%). Seasonally BTTS rates are closer to balance: 43% for Amarante and 57% for Belenenses, but seasonal average goals scored 1.36 and 1.79 and average goals conceded 0.93 and 1.00 suggest both sides regularly create and concede goals. xG corroborates this numerically: Amarante has xG_for 1.52 versus opponent xG_against 1.16 (+0.36), and Belenenses has xG_for 1.34 versus opponent xG_against 1.12 (+0.22), meaning both teams generate a positive chance differential. Additionally, Belenenses have not recorded any match without scoring this season (0% matches without a goal), and in the last 5 fixtures both teams averaged 1.8 goals each, which increases the likelihood both teams will find the net. Although the league clean sheet rate is 63%, individual clean sheets for both teams are 43%, therefore combining form, xG and recent results I assess BTTS - Yes at 70% and BTTS - No at 30%.

I project a total of 2.57 goals (1.34 for Amarante and 1.23 for CF Os Belenenses), calculated as the average of each team’s attacking xG and the opponent’s defensive xG: Amarante has attacking xG 1.52 versus Belenenses’ xG against 1.16, and Belenenses has attacking xG 1.34 versus Amarante’s xG against 1.12. That projection in a Poisson model yields roughly a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals (i.e., at least 2), which aligns with season Over 1.5 rates: 64% for Amarante and 79% for Belenenses. The 2.5 line is less certain – our expected total 2.57 corresponds to P(>=3) ≈ 47%, while seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 43% and 57% respectively, so the edge for Over 2.5 is weak. Over 3.5 looks unlikely (~26%), consistent with season Over 3.5 percentages of 21%/29%. Additionally, in the last 5 matches both teams have scored 9 goals each (an average of 1.8 per match apiece), which reinforces playing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

CF Os Belenenses appears favored to lead at the break and maintain the win, as the visitors were leading at halftime in 57% of their matches and held a halftime lead in 60% of their last five games. On average the visitors score 1.07 goals by halftime versus 0.71 for the hosts (1.07 vs 0.71), confirming a first-half attacking edge. Over the full match CF Os Belenenses average 1.79 goals versus Amarante’s 1.36 and have a higher win rate (64% vs 57% for the hosts), so holding the lead is realistic. Amarante generate higher xG (1.52 vs 1.34) and more shots (12.0 vs 10.43) but a lower conversion rate (11% vs 17%), which limits their chances of a turnaround after halftime. Therefore the most likely HT/FT scenario is 2/2 (visitors leading at halftime and winning), to which I assign the highest probability.