Amed vs BB Bodrumspor: match statistics

Amed is the favorite due to home dominance: hosts score an average of 2.44 goals per home match with xG 1.97, and have scored 12 goals in the last 5 games, while BB Bodrumspor averages 1.61 goals away with xG 1.30 and only 4 goals in their last five fixtures. The difference in quality of chances is clear — Amed averages 18.11 shots and 6.56 on target per home match, whereas the visitors register only 11.39 shots and 4.22 on target. Defensively Amed concedes just 0.72 goals per home match and has 44% clean sheets, while Bodrumspor concedes 1.22 goals away and has 28% clean sheets. Hosts have a 78% home win rate and a home goal difference of +31, compared to the visitors’ 39% away win rate and +7; however Bodrumspor are unbeaten in the last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws) and average 1.8 points in that period versus 1.6 for Amed. Considering Amed’s low 6% of matches without scoring versus 28% for Bodrumspor, the higher xG (1.97 vs 1.30) and superiority in shots, I assign Amed a 65% chance to win, 20% for a draw and 15% for a Bodrumspor victory.

Amed averages 2.28 goals scored and concedes 0.83 per match, while BB Bodrumspor scores 1.61 and concedes 1.22, giving the home side the edge both offensively and defensively. Amed keep a clean sheet in 56% of matches versus Bodrum only 28%; seasonal BTTS rates are 44% for Amed and 50% for Bodrum, and the league records 57% of matches with a clean sheet — a strong signal in favor of No BTTS. In the last 5 matches Amed have 60% BTTS with an average of 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, whereas Bodrum have 40% BTTS and just 0.8 scored in that period, highlighting clear offensive issues for the visitors. In terms of chance quality Amed have xG 1.49 with xG against 0.99, 13.44 shots and 5.06 on target at a 17% conversion rate, versus Bodrum’s xG 1.30, xG against 1.31, 11.39 shots and 4.22 on target at 14% conversion — the hosts create more and convert more efficiently. Considering Amed’s higher clean sheet rate (56% vs 28%), Bodrum’s poor recent scoring form (0.8 goals in the last 5), and balanced seasonal BTTS figures, the No BTTS scenario is more likely; I therefore recommend "No Goal" (No BTTS).

Amed averages 2.28 goals scored per home match (xG 1.49) and concedes 0.83, while BB Bodrumspor has a season scoring average of 1.61 (xG 1.30) and concedes 1.22. Calculating expected goals by two methods: (xG_for_home + xG_against_away)/2 = (1.49+1.31)/2 = 1.40 and (seasonScoredAVG_home + seasonConcededAVG_away)/2 = (2.28+1.22)/2 = 1.75, their average yields 1.58 for Amed; similarly for the away side (1.30+0.99)/2 = 1.15 and (1.61+0.83)/2 = 1.22, averaging 1.18 for BB, totaling 2.76. A Poisson model for a total of 2.76 gives P(Over 1.5) ≈ 76%, P(Over 2.5) ≈ 52% and P(Over 3.5) ≈ 30%; additionally, seasonal Over1.5 rates are 83% (Amed) and 78% (BB), and Over2.5 rates are 56% and 50%, which reinforces the Over 1.5 signal and provides a moderate signal for Over 2.5. Based on this, I recommend betting Over 1.5 (line 1.5) as the strongest signal with a final probability of about 78%; treat Over 2.5 as a moderate option (52%) and Over 3.5 as risky (30%).

Hosts (Amed) have the advantage in the first half: they score on average 1.28 goals by halftime versus 0.78 for BB Bodrumspor and led at the break in 44% of their matches. Over the full match Amed score on average 2.28 goals compared to 1.61 for their opponents, and the hosts have 61% of the season’s wins versus 39% for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. The hosts’ xG is 1.49 versus the guests’ 1.30, and Amed register 5.06 shots on target against 4.22, so statistically they create more chances and convert them better (conversion 17% vs 14%). Given that the hosts score before halftime more often and have solid second-half figures (Amed average 1.0 goal after the break and concede 0.28), I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (36%). Alternatives are a draw at half-time and a hosts’ win (X/1 20%) and small chances of a turnaround by the visitors (a combined 20% for full-time results in favor of Bodrumspor).