Amed vs Ümraniyespor: match statistics

Amed is the clear favorite: they sit 2nd in the table, have 21 wins and 75 goals this season, and at home they score 2.47 goals on average while conceding only 0.65 per match. In their last 5 fixtures Amed have won all 5, scoring 17 goals (3.4 per match) and conceding just 2 (0.4 per match), yielding 3 points per game over that span. Ümraniyespor, 15th, have 12 wins and 40 goals this season, but on the road they average only 0.59 goals, fail to score in 53% of away matches and manage just 2.88 shots on target per game versus Amed’s 6.59 at home. The quality gap is confirmed by xG: Amed generate 1.94 xG at home with 1.07 xG against, while the visitors have 0.99 xG away and 1.54 xG against, and shot conversion is 14% for the hosts versus 7% for the visitors. Considering higher possession (54% vs 48%), 47% clean sheets for the hosts vs 18% for the visitors, and the home run of 5 wins, I predict an Amed victory.

Amed scores an average of 1.76 goals per match and concedes 1.06, while Ümraniyespor scores only 0.59 and concedes 1.41. Season BTTS rate is 47% for Amed and 29% for Ümraniyespor, and in the last 5 matches 40% and 20% respectively, indicating the visitors are much less likely to be involved in Goal/Goal games. xG shows Amed 1.33 xG per match versus 0.99 xG for Ümraniyespor, and the visitors average just 2.88 shots on target with a 7% conversion rate, supporting the thesis of poor away attacking efficiency. Amed have 75 goals scored this season and netted 17 in the last 5 matches (3.4 per match), while keeping a clean sheet in 41% of matches, so the probability that the hosts will be the only team to score is high. Considering the low away goals average of 0.59, the visitors’ season BTTS of 29% and the weak 7% conversion rate, I assign 25% chance to BTTS - Yes and 75% to BTTS - No and recommend a 'No' bet.

Amed has a clear offensive advantage: they score on average 1.76 goals at home, register 5.18 shots on target and 10.76 shots overall, and in the last 5 matches have scored 17 goals (avg. 3.4) while conceding only 2. Ümraniyespor are much weaker offensively away — on average 0.59 goals, 2.88 shots on target and a conversion rate of 7%, with just 5 goals in their last 5 matches. A model based on xG yields expected goals of 1.44 for the home side (home xG 1.33 and opponent defense 1.54 → average 1.44) and 1.17 for the visitors (away xG 0.99 and home defense 1.36 → average 1.17), totaling ≈2.61 goals. Seasonal indicators confirm the trend: 71% of Amed’s matches finish over 1.5 goals, 59% for away teams for over 1.5, and the last 5 home matches show 80% over 2.5; therefore I assign a high probability to Over 1.5 (86%) and a moderate probability to Over 2.5 (62%). Over 3.5 is less likely (seasonal 35% for Amed and 12% for Ümraniyespor), so I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the strongest data signal.

Amed is favored to lead at the break and to maintain the victory: the hosts score an average of 0.82 goals by half-time versus 0.29 for Ümraniyespor and led at the break in 35% of matches compared to 18% for the visitors. Additionally, Amed averages 5.18 shots on target versus 2.88 and has a higher xG (1.33 vs 0.99) and better conversion rate (16% vs 7%), which increases the likelihood of goals in the first half. In full time the hosts win 47% of matches compared to 24% for the visitors and score an average of 1.76 goals per match vs 0.59 for Ümraniyespor; in the last five matches Amed led at the break in 60% and averaged 1.4 goals by half-time (visitors 0.2), which confirms their advantage. Taking this into account, I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 HT/FT scenario (around 28%), with a close signal being a draw at half-time and a home victory (X/1 approximately 26%) due to the high share of half-time draws (47%).