América Mineiro vs Ceará: match statistics
América Mineiro vs Ceará: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
América Mineiro played Ceará in Serie B (Brazil). The match was played on 17 July 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
América Mineiro: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Ceará: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
América Mineiro scores 0.65 and concedes 1.65 goals per match. Ceará scores 0.88 and concedes 1.18. League average: 2.30 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: América Mineiro 47%, Ceará 47%. Over 2.5: América Mineiro 53%, Ceará 29%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 43%.
xG, shots and style
Ceará has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.47. América Mineiro: 13.2 shots per match, Ceará: 13.5.
Match halves
América Mineiro: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.18. Ceará: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.41.
Goals by minute
América Mineiro: 16-30 (3 goals). Ceará: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.30 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 43%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
América Mineiro (20th) has a clear advantage in chance creation: at home they average 13.75 shots and 3.88 on target per match with xG 1.46, whereas Ceará away posts 11.13 shots, 2.88 on target and xG 1.19. Despite this, América scores only 0.63 goals per home match with a conversion rate of 5% and has not yet recorded a home win this season (0% wins), which reduces their efficiency. Ceará has better defensive numbers this season (20 goals conceded vs 28 for América) and concedes 1.25 goals on average away vs 1.63 for the hosts, but in the last 5 matches the visitors have scored only 1 and conceded 6, indicating poor offensive form. Both teams display low scoring efficiency (average 0.63 goals in their matches) and a high share of matches without scoring: 38% for América at home and 50% for Ceará away, so I expect few goals and an elevated risk of a draw. Considering the higher xG and greater shot volume for the hosts, but also their finishing issues, I give a slight edge to América: home 45%, draw 30%, away 25%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
xG and expected goals analysis mildly favors BTTS: América Mineiro has xG_for 1.76 while Ceará concedes xG 1.50, and Ceará has xG_for 1.19 with xG_against América 1.16, indicating both teams create chances. Over the season América averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded, whereas Ceará scores only 0.63 and concedes 1.25, so the home side appears a greater offensive threat. Countering this is recent form: in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in only 20% of cases for both teams, Ceará averaged 0.2 goals in that period (1 goal total), and the league has a high clean sheet rate of 63%. xG-based modelling gives an approximate probability of both teams scoring at ~56% with lambda around 1.63 for the home team and 1.18 for the visitors, so despite Ceará’s poor finishing I give a slight edge to the YES scenario. Consequently I rate BTTS at 56% vs 44% and pick YES (BTTS - Yes) as the strongest signal, driven mainly by xG advantage and Ceará’s defensive vulnerability.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: América Mineiro’s attacking xG is 1.76 versus Ceará’s defensive xG of 1.50, yielding a projected 1.63 goals for the home side; Ceará’s attacking xG 1.19 versus América’s defensive xG 1.16 projects 1.18 goals for the away side, totaling 2.81 expected goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.81 produces probabilities of approximately 77% for Over 1.5, 53% for Over 2.5 and 31% for Over 3.5. Seasonal metrics support Over 1.5 — hosts have 56% of matches with over 1.5 goals, visitors 88%, and Over 0.5 occurs for both at 89% and 88% respectively; additionally, the home side averages 5.11 shots on target versus 2.88 for the visitors. However, note the lower realized average goals: 1.11 (home) vs 0.63 (away) and a low Over 2.5 share in Ceará’s matches (13%), which reduces confidence at the 2.5 line. Consequently the strongest and safest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (back), while the 2.5 line remains only slightly favored.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
América Mineiro have a clear advantage in the first half: they led at the break in 4 matches (44%), while Ceará never led at the break (0%), which strongly favors the home side in HT. The hosts average 0.78 goals in the first half versus 0.13 for the visitors and concede only 0.33 goals compared with 0.63 for Ceará, so after 45 minutes they have on average 0.65 more goals (0.78–0.13). On full-time metrics the statistics also favor América: xG 1.76 versus 1.19 for Ceará, an average of 1.33 points per match vs 0.75 and a win percentage of 33% vs 13%. Ceará are stronger in the second half from a scoring perspective (0.50 goals in second halves vs 0.33 for América) and have a higher average points yield in second halves (1.13 vs 0.89), which increases their chances of staging a turnaround after the break. Considering América’s 44% share of leads at the break, the xG advantage and the higher win percentage, the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT 1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| América Mineiro | Ceará | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
América Mineiro is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - América Mineiro · 0.4 pts / match - Ceará
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ceará is 35% better for: goals scored per match.
0.65 goals / match - América Mineiro · 0.88 goals / match - Ceará
Ceará is 40% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.65 goals / match - América Mineiro · 1.18 goals / match - Ceará
América Mineiro scores in 53% of matches (9 of 17 matches), while Ceará keeps a clean sheet in 24% (4 of 17 matches).
Ceará scores in 59% of matches (10 of 17 matches), while América Mineiro keeps a clean sheet in 12% (2 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - América Mineiro
Over / Under - Ceará
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ceará is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.12 pts / match - América Mineiro · 1.18 pts / match - Ceará
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
América Mineiro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 6%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ceará - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
América Mineiro
Ceará
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| América Mineiro | Liga | Ceará | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.29 | 2.30 | ▼ 2.06 |
| Both teams scored | • 47% | 47% | • 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 53% | 43% | ▼ 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 12% | 31% | ▼ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 65% | ▼ 59% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 74% | ▲ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of América Mineiro vs Ceará?
The Serie B match finished América Mineiro 1:1 Ceará. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before América Mineiro vs Ceará?
América Mineiro score 0.65 goals per game on average and Ceará 0.88. The Serie B average is 2.30 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 43% of games. Both teams score in 47% of América Mineiro's matches and 47% of Ceará's.
What form are América Mineiro and Ceará in?
Over the last 5 games América Mineiro have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Ceará 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for América Mineiro vs Ceará?
The statistical background for América Mineiro vs Ceará — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.