América vs Toluca: match statistics
América vs Toluca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
América played Toluca in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 19 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
América: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Toluca: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
América scores 1.52 and concedes 1.03 goals per match. Toluca scores 1.89 and concedes 0.89. League average: 2.90 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: América 52%, Toluca 54%. Over 2.5: América 45%, Toluca 49%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.84 vs 1.66. América: 14.6 shots per match, Toluca: 17.8.
Match halves
América: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 1.00. Toluca: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 1.05.
Goals by minute
América: 76-90+ (15 goals). Toluca: 46-60 (16 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.90 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
América has strong home metrics: 69% win rate at their stadium, averaging 1.75 goals scored, xG 1.94 and 6.44 shots on target per match while conceding only 0.94 goals. Toluca has the better overall season record: 21 wins and 70 goals, compared to América’s 16 wins and 50 goals; in the last 5 matches Toluca scored 9 goals and averages 1.6 pts, whereas América managed only 2 goals and 0.6 pts. Away, Toluca averages 1.44 goals but records as many as 44% of matches without scoring, while América fail to score at home in only 6% of appearances. Quality of chances favors the hosts — América xG 1.94 exceeds Toluca’s average away xG (1.11); additionally América has the edge in shots on target (6.44 vs 5.11) and a higher conversion rate (10% vs 9%), so a home win is more likely, although a draw remains plausible.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal data show a clear asymmetry: América has a seasonal BTTS rate of 74% and averages 2.32 goals scored (xG 2.02), while Toluca has a seasonal BTTS of 33%, averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.72 goals conceded per match. xG and defensive averages suggest both teams have scoring potential: América xG_for 2.02 vs Toluca xG_against 1.11 yields an approximate expected ~1.56 goals for América, and Toluca xG_for 1.63 vs América xG_against 1.07 yields ~1.35 goals for Toluca. In the last 5 matches Toluca scored 9 goals (avg 1.8) and had 60% BTTS, while América scored only 2 goals (avg 0.4) and had 40% BTTS, indicating an improvement in Toluca’s offense and a temporary dip in América’s form. Toluca also has 44% clean sheets this season vs América’s 26%, which on one hand weakens the BTTS signal but on the other América still generates more shots and has a higher conversion rate (6.58 shots on target and 12% conversion vs 5.11 and 9% for Toluca), so I expect goals from both sides. Considering América’s seasonal BTTS advantage (74% vs 33%), the positive expected xG (~1.56 vs ~1.35) and the league BTTS level of 59%, I back BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65% vs 35% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on xG and defensive metrics projects a total of 2.92 goals: 1.57 for América (attacking xG 2.02 vs Toluca conceding 1.11 xG) and 1.35 for Toluca (attacking xG 1.63 vs América defense 1.07 xG). América has a clear advantage in shot volume and quality — averaging 19.68 shots and 6.58 SOT with a 12.0% conversion rate, versus Toluca’s 15.89 shots, 5.11 SOT and 9.0% conversion — which increases the likelihood of home goals. Seasonal Over 1.5 rates are 89% for América and 50% for Toluca, and a Poisson distribution with lambda=2.92 yields roughly a 79% chance of Over 1.5 (Over 2.5: ~56%, Over 3.5: ~34%). Additionally, BTTS is 74% for América versus 33% for Toluca, so the probability of both teams scoring is moderate, and the strongest signal from the data is an Over 1.5 outcome.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
América holds a clear advantage in season-long statistics: at home they score an average of 2.32 goals per match (xG 2.02) and lead at the break in 11 games, i.e. 58% of cases, whereas Toluca score 1.44 goals away (xG 1.63) and lead at the break in only 4 matches (22%). In the first half América records 1.16 goals and concedes 0.53, while Toluca have 0.5 scored and 0.33 conceded by halftime, which confirms the home side’s superiority in the opening 45 minutes. Full-time outcomes are also influenced by offensive metrics: América averages 6.58 shots on target versus Toluca’s 5.11 and has a higher shot conversion rate (12% vs 9%), and at home they win 63% of matches, so a lead at the break and a home victory is the most likely scenario. However, form over the last five matches reduces certainty — América have 0% wins in the last five and 100% HT draws, while Toluca in that period led at the break in 60% of matches — therefore I also account for the chances of a draw and turnarounds. As a result I pick 1/1 as the primary HT/FT selection (31%), with significant alternatives X/1 (12%) and 2/2 (16%) reflecting both América’s historical advantage and the recent uncertain form of both teams.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| América | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
América is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - América · 1.2 pts / match - Toluca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 24% better for: goals scored per match.
1.52 goals / match - América · 1.89 goals / match - Toluca
Toluca is 16% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.03 goals / match - América · 0.89 goals / match - Toluca
América scores in 79% of matches (26 of 33 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 35% (13 of 37 matches).
Toluca scores in 76% of matches (28 of 37 matches), while América keeps a clean sheet in 33% (11 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - América
Over / Under - Toluca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 27% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.3 pts / match - América · 1.65 pts / match - Toluca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
América - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 0% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (16 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
América
Toluca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| América | Liga | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.55 | 2.90 | ▼ 2.78 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 59% | ▼ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 55% | ▼ 49% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 23% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 70% | 72% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | • 79% | 78% | • 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: América 0 - 0 - 1 Toluca. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of América vs Toluca?
The Liga MX match finished América 2:1 Toluca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before América vs Toluca?
América score 1.52 goals per game on average and Toluca 1.89. The Liga MX average is 2.90 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 52% of América's matches and 54% of Toluca's.
What form are América and Toluca in?
Over the last 5 games América have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Toluca 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for América vs Toluca?
The statistical background for América vs Toluca — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.