Amiens SC vs Versailles: match statistics

Versailles sit 7th, while Amiens are only 16th, and the gap is also reflected in their recent form: the visitors have collected 10 points from their last five matches, compared with just 2 for the hosts. Amiens have scored just 1 goal in their last five games and failed to find the net in their only home match so far, recording an xG of 0.88. Versailles have scored 11 times in their last five matches, while away from home they average 11.5 shots and 5.5 shots on target per game, scoring 2.5 goals. However, the visitors’ defence is not entirely reliable, as they concede an average of 2.5 goals away from home, with opponents registering an xG of 1.41, making a draw a realistic scenario. Despite this, Versailles’ clearly superior attacking productivity and stronger results trend point towards a victory.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Amiens’ very poor finishing: the team has scored just 1 goal in its last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, with an xG of only 0.86 over that period. The hosts have failed to score in any of their matches so far at home, while their rate of games featuring goals from both teams stands at 0% this season and just 20% across their last five appearances. Versailles are an attacking threat, averaging 2.2 goals and an xG of 1.78 in their last 5 matches, giving the visitors a strong basis for scoring themselves. At the same time, Amiens’ solid home defence has yet to concede a goal, and their season-long xG conceded stands at 0.90, increasing the likelihood of a scenario in which at least one team fails to score. Although Versailles have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five matches, the hosts’ low attacking output and the league BTTS average of 33% provide stronger support for the BTTS - No pick.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Versailles have scored 11 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.2 per game, while Amiens have conceded an average of 1.6 goals during this period. The visitors are also creating significantly better chances: their average xG over the last five matches stands at 1.78 compared with 0.86 for the hosts, while they average 5.5 shots on target versus Amiens’ 3.0. Versailles’ defense is not impenetrable, however, having conceded 8 goals in their last five appearances, with an average xG against of 1.45, giving the hosts a realistic chance to respond. On the other hand, Amiens have scored just 1 goal in their last five matches, which is why the 2.5 line remains more evenly balanced than Over 1.5. The 2.40-goal projection indicates a high probability of at least two goals, but limits confidence in a high-scoring game.

Versailles are showing clearly superior current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 2.2 goals and won 60% of their games, while Amiens have scored just 0.2 goals per match, failed to win any of those fixtures and lost 60% of them. The visitors have started strongly, leading at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, whereas the hosts were trailing at half-time in 60% of their matches over the same period. Before the break, Versailles average 1.2 goals compared with Amiens’ 0.2, with the visitors posting a positive goal difference of +3 and the hosts a negative balance of -3. The attacking potential also favours the away side, who record an xG of 1.40 and 5.5 shots on target per match, compared with Amiens’ 1.17 xG and 3.0 shots on target. The most likely scenario is therefore an HT/FT 2/2 outcome, with Versailles taking the lead at the break and maintaining it until the end of the match.