Ammanford vs Colwyn Bay: match statistics

Ammanford head into this match in significantly better form: they have collected 10 points from their last 5 games, winning 3 times and scoring as many as 12 goals. Over the same period, Colwyn Bay recorded just 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat, with a mere 3 goals scored. The hosts did lose their only league match so far, 1:2, but their current scoring rate of 2.4 goals per game clearly works in their favour. The visitors opened the season with a 2:0 victory and sit in second place, while their clean sheet record means the possibility of a draw must be taken seriously. However, Ammanford’s superior current attacking output gives the hosts a slightly higher probability of winning.

The BTTS - No pick has the edge because Colwyn Bay averaged just 0.6 goals over their last 5 matches, while both teams scored in only 20% of their games. Over the same period, Ammanford conceded just 0.8 goals per match and, according to the available season data, kept a clean sheet in 100% of their appearances. The home side are highly effective offensively, averaging 2.4 goals across their last five matches with an xG of 1.77, so they could win without conceding. BTTS - Yes is supported by Colwyn Bay’s xG of 1.44 and Ammanford’s xG against of 1.46, but the visitors’ poor actual goal output reduces the credibility of this scenario. Although the league BTTS average stands at 63%, the combination of Colwyn Bay’s low scoring efficiency and Ammanford’s solid defence more often points to at least one team failing to score.

Ammanford are in good attacking form: they have averaged 2.4 goals over their last 5 matches, with average xG of 1.77. Colwyn Bay have scored just 0.6 goals per game during this period, despite creating chances worth an average of 1.44 xG, which suggests limited finishing efficiency. The hosts have conceded 4 goals in their last five appearances, while the visitors have conceded 3, meaning both teams have allowed their opponents relatively few goals. Although 80% of Ammanford’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, Colwyn Bay’s low scoring output reduces the likelihood of a very open game. The projected total of 2.55 goals points to the clearest edge being Under 3.5 goals, as a result with at least four goals would require above-average finishing from the visitors or an exceptionally high score from the hosts.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Ammanford win at full-time, as Colwyn Bay were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches, compared with 2 out of 5 for Ammanford. During this period, the hosts averaged 2.4 goals per match, clearly more than Colwyn Bay’s 0.6, while their record stood at 3 wins in 5 appearances versus just 1 victory for the visitors. After the break, Ammanford scored an average of 1.6 goals, whereas Colwyn Bay failed to score in the second half in any of their last five matches. Additionally, the visitors drew the second half in 80% of those games and did not win any, supporting the hosts’ advantage built after the break. Although Ammanford led at half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Colwyn Bay’s high rate of early draws means that the X/1 outcome narrowly edges 1/1.