Andijan vs Kokand-1912: match statistics

Andijan have a clearly superior season record, with 8 wins and 24 goals scored compared to Kokand-1912’s 4 victories and 18 goals. At home, the hosts average 1.3 goals scored, concede just 0.9 and win 50% of their matches, while the visitors manage only 0.8 goals and a mere 10% win rate away from home. Andijan’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: their average home xG stands at 1.54, compared to Kokand-1912’s 1.21 away from home, while the hosts record 4.4 shots on target per match against 3.3 for their opponents. However, Kokand-1912 come into the match unbeaten in their last five league games, drawing three times and conceding only 3 goals, which increases the likelihood of a closely contested encounter. Despite Andijan’s weaker recent scoring form, home advantage and a more reliable defence point to a narrow edge for the hosts.

The stronger signal points toward BTTS - No, primarily due to Andijan’s current form: they have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while BTTS - Yes has not occurred once. Kokand-1912 have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 fixtures, conceding only 3 goals during that period, or 0.6 per match. The hosts have also been inconsistent offensively over the course of the season, scoring an average of 1.0 goal, while the visitors have failed to score in as many as 50% of their league matches. Although Andijan’s season BTTS rate stands at 70%, this is counterbalanced by a clear decline in finishing efficiency and Kokand’s more solid recent defensive record. The average xG from the last five appearances—1.39 for Andijan and 0.91 for Kokand—suggests a match with limited chance creation, particularly from the visitors, so at least one team is more likely to finish without scoring.

The profile of both teams points to a moderate number of chances: Andijan averages 1.0 goals per match, while Kokand-1912 averages 0.8. In their last five matches, the hosts scored just 2 goals, while the visitors conceded only 3, further limiting the goal forecast. The combined xG of both teams is 2.29, but Kokand’s current average attacking xG is only 0.91, while Andijan does not exceed 1.39 despite their weaker results. Over 3.5 goals occurred in only 10% of Andijan’s matches and 40% of Kokand’s, compared with a league average of 2.64 goals. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as this bet would only lose if the match produced a scoreline clearly above the typical level of both teams.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Kokand-1912 win at full-time (X/2). Andijan have failed to score before the break in each of their last five matches, drawing at half-time in 80% of them, while Kokand have not conceded a first-half goal in any of those five fixtures. The visitors were also leading at the break in 60% of their recent matches, whereas the hosts did not lead at half-time even once. The full-time outlook also favours the visitors: Kokand are unbeaten in their last five matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Andijan score just 0.4 goals and allow opponents 1.4. Although the hosts have a better full-season home record, their current attacking crisis and the visitors’ greater defensive stability point to a decisive result after a cautious first half.