Annecy vs Metz: match statistics

Annecy have a clearly stronger home record: they won their only match so far, scoring 2 goals and conceding none. The hosts also create more danger, averaging 12 shots, including 6 on target, with an xG of 1.45. Metz remain unbeaten in their last five matches, scoring 10 goals in that span, but their only away game ended in a 0:0 draw despite 60% possession. The visitors are yet to score away from home, averaging just 1 shot on target and recording an xG of 1.02, which limits their attacking potential. Metz’s solid defensive record, with an xG against of 0.92, increases the likelihood of a draw, but Annecy’s advantage in chance creation and home efficiency favour the hosts.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by the current form of both teams: Annecy saw both teams score in 60% of their last 5 matches, while Metz recorded this outcome in as many as 80%. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 1.2, whereas the visitors scored 2.0 goals per match while conceding just 0.8. Metz generated an average of 1.50 xG, while Annecy’s defence allowed opponents 1.79 xG, clearly increasing the visitors’ chances of scoring. Annecy should also find the net, as they average 6.5 shots on target at home and generate 1.75 xG, compared with Metz allowing just 0.92 xG. Although the league-wide BTTS average is only 44%, the latest attacking data and the high percentage of matches in which both teams scored marginally support the Yes scenario.

Metz are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 2.0 goals over their last 5 matches, while their average xG stood at 1.50. Over the same period, Annecy conceded 1.2 goals per game but allowed opponents chances worth as much as 1.79 xG, which favors an away goal. The hosts have scored 7 goals in their last 5 fixtures and generate an average of 1.75 xG at home, although Metz conceded just 0.8 goals per game in their most recent run. Both teams had matches featuring at least 3 goals in 40% and 60% of their respective last five appearances, making the 2.5 line close to balanced. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.70 goals provides a clear margin above that line.

Annecy have started their last five matches very strongly, leading at the break in 100% of them, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before half-time and conceding none. Metz also rarely lose the first half, having been level at half-time in 80% of their last five matches, but their advantage becomes more apparent after the interval. During this period, the visitors averaged 1.2 goals after half-time, while Annecy scored only 0.33, and the hosts also conceded an average of 1.0 goal in the second halves. The full-time results trend also favours Metz: they are unbeaten in five matches, with 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 goals per game. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that Annecy will benefit from their stronger start, but Metz will complete a turnaround after half-time.