Annecy vs Rodez: match statistics

Annecy holds the advantage at home – they score on average 1.56 goals per home match with 10.69 shots and 3.75 on target, while Rodez on the road average 1.31 goals with 9.56 shots and 3.06 on target. Defensively the hosts are clearly superior: Annecy concede 0.88 goals at home versus Rodez’s 1.38 away, have 38% clean sheets compared to the visitors’ 19%, and Rodez’s opponents generate 1.78 xG on average in their away matches versus 1.03 xG against Annecy at home. In the form of the last 5 matches Annecy scored 13 goals (2.6 per game) and average 2.6 points per game, while Rodez scored 8 goals (1.6 per game) and average 2.2 points per game. Additionally Annecy fail to score less often (13% of matches without scoring vs 25% for Rodez) and have a higher home conversion rate (15% vs 14%), which increases the hosts’ chances of scoring and holding the lead. Based on this I tip a home win; accounting for differences in xG, conversion and defense I give Annecy about a 60% chance, a draw 22% and a Rodez win 18%.

Both teams show high seasonal BTTS rates: Annecy 71% and Rodez 69%, both well above the league average of 52%. In the last 5 matches Annecy recorded BTTS in 60% of games, Rodez in 80%, with last-5 goals averages: Annecy 2.6 scored and 0.6 conceded, Rodez 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded, indicating genuine mutual goal threat. Seasonal goals averages are 1.29 scored and 0.94 conceded for Annecy, and 1.31 scored and 1.38 conceded for Rodez; additionally Rodez has higher xG against at 1.78 versus Annecy's 1.39, so Rodez is more exposed to conceding. Annecy also generates more attacking quality: xG 1.49 vs 1.13 for Rodez and more shots on target 4.35 to 3.06, and season goals are 48 for Annecy and 43 for Rodez, showing both teams can find the net. Given the 71% and 69% seasonal BTTS, low clean sheet percentages 24% vs 19% and BTTS form 60%/80% in the last 5, I rate BTTS - Yes 78% vs 22% as the strongest signal.

Based on xG: Annecy has xG_for 1.49, while Rodez concedes on average 1.78 xG per match — the mean of these values yields expected goals for Annecy ≈1.64; similarly Rodez has xG_for 1.13 against Annecy xG_against 1.39 which gives ≈1.26 goals for the visitors, totaling ≈2.90. With an expected goals sum of 2.90, a Poisson model estimates OVER 1.5 ≈79% and OVER 2.5 ≈56%, so the >1.5 market looks strong. Seasonal stats confirm this: Annecy records OVER1.5 in 71% of matches, Rodez in 81%, and BTTS occurs in 71% and 69% of games respectively, increasing the probability of goals from both sides. Additionally, recent form (last 5 matches) reinforces the forecast — Annecy averages 2.6 goals in the last 5 (13 goals), Rodez 1.6 (8 goals), therefore the strongest signal is over 1.5 (line 1.5, side "over").

A draw at half-time is the most common scenario — home teams are level at the break in 59% of matches, while the visitors are level at half in 50%. For the full-time result Annecy are favored: the hosts win 47% of matches, have the higher xG (1.49 versus Rodez’s 1.13) and register more shots (13.24 vs 9.56), indicating a greater number of scoring opportunities. Both teams typically score in the second half — 76% of Annecy’s matches see at least one goal after the break, and for Rodez this figure is 88% — so decisive outcomes often occur post-break. Considering the frequent half-time draw (59%) and the hosts’ superiority in chance creation (xG 1.49 vs 1.13), the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with a home win by full-time (X/1, 26%).