Anorthosis vs Paphos: match statistics

Paphos sit 4th and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while 13th-placed Anorthosis have lost 4 times in that period, conceding 10 goals compared with just 2 by the visitors. Away from home, Paphos average 18.5 shots and post an xG of 2.12, indicating a greater volume and better quality of chances than Anorthosis have created at home (13 shots and an xG of 1.51). The visitors have won both of their away matches so far without conceding, although the hosts have also won their only home game, scoring 2 goals. Home advantage and Anorthosis’ opponents’ low home xG of 0.91 temper confidence in the pick, but the gap in recent form and attacking potential favours Paphos.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is Paphos’s defensive record: the visitors have kept a clean sheet in every away match so far and have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals across their last 5 games. Anorthosis have averaged 0.6 goals over the same period, scoring just 3 in total, which increases the risk that they fail to find the net. On the other hand, the hosts generate 1.97 xG at home and average 5.5 shots on target, so it is not a foregone conclusion that they will be held scoreless. Paphos are more consistent in attack, however: they average 2.0 goals away from home, while Anorthosis have conceded an average of 2.0 in their last 5 matches. Despite both teams’ attacking potential, the more likely scenario is that Paphos score and Anorthosis do not—meaning at least one team fails to score, rather than necessarily a 0-0 result.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in any of Anorthosis’s home matches or Paphos’s away matches to date. The hosts have averaged 0.6 goals scored over their last 5 games, while the visitors have conceded just 0.4, limiting the chances of Anorthosis posting a high score. Paphos has greater attacking potential, with an average xG of 1.94 over its last 5 matches compared with 1.16 for the hosts, but has averaged only 1.0 goal scored during that period. Although Anorthosis has recently conceded 2.0 goals per match, the projected total of 2.40 goals suggests that going Over 3.5 would require considerably more clinical finishing than either team has shown in recent results.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Paphos win, although this is only marginally more likely than the visitors leading from the outset. Anorthosis were level at the break in both of their home matches so far, while Paphos went into half-time all square in 4 of their last 5 games. The difference after the break is more pronounced: in their last 5 matches, Anorthosis conceded an average of 1.4 goals in the second half, while Paphos scored an average of 0.8. The visitors’ recent form also supports a win at full-time: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 0.4 goals per game, whereas the hosts have lost 4 of 5 and scored an average of 0.6 goals. The X/2 pick therefore accounts for the frequent half-time draw and Paphos’s greater effectiveness after the break, although the home and away records each cover only 2 matches.