Ansan Greeners vs Gimhae City: match statistics

Gimhae City is a narrow favorite due to fresher form and superior defensive metrics: in their last 5 matches they scored 9 goals with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, while Ansan scored 4 goals with 2 wins and 3 losses. The defensive gap is clear – Ansan concedes 2.00 goals per home match, whereas Gimhae concedes 1.56 on the road; the visitors also have 22% clean sheets compared to the hosts’ 0%. Offensively Ansan at home averages 1.00 goals per game, xG 1.24 and 3.91 shots on target from 9.45 total shots, yet their 11% conversion rate has not translated into recent effectiveness. Gimhae away posts 0.89 goals per game, xG 1.15 and 3.67 shots on target, and have failed to score in only 11% of away matches versus 18% of Ansan’s home matches without a goal, which increases the visitors’ probability of scoring. Considering the 9 away goals in the last 5 matches, the better goals-against average 1.56 vs 2.00 and 1.6 points per game in the last 5 versus Ansan’s 1.2, I tip Gimhae to win (2) and propose the probability distribution: home 25%, draw 30%, away 45%.

Seasonal statistics strongly favor BTTS: Ansan has 75% home matches with both teams scoring, Gimhae has 67% such away matches, and the league BTTS average is 63%. The hosts concede 2.5 goals per match on average this season and have no clean sheets at home (0% clean sheets), while Gimhae has scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches (1.8 avg), increasing the likelihood that the visitors will find the net. Ansan produces xG 1.33 per match but actually scores only 0.75 goals and has a low shot conversion of 7%, whereas Gimhae has xG 1.15 and a higher conversion of 11%, so despite finishing issues the chances for goals from both sides remain high. In the short term Ansan has only 40% BTTS in the last 5 matches, and Gimhae 80%, and Ansan concedes 2.2 goals on average in the last 5 (11 conceded), which is a strong signal that the hosts are vulnerable to conceding. Considering the seasonal 75%/67% BTTS, Ansan’s lack of clean sheets and Gimhae’s 1.8 goals per match over the last 5, I recommend a bet on BTTS (Yes) as the more probable outcome.

Aggregate xG and defensive metrics point to a goal-heavy game: Ansan’s attacking xG is 1.33, Gimhae’s attacking xG is 1.15, and xG against both teams is 1.86, yielding expected ~1.60 goals for the home side and ~1.50 for the visitors (total ~3.10). Seasonal rates confirm this trend — Over 1.5 occurs in 88% of Ansan’s matches and 78% of Gimhae’s, and both teams show high BTTS: 75% and 67%. Over 2.5 is more mixed: Ansan has 75% of matches with >2.5 goals, but Gimhae only 33%, so I estimate the probability of Over 2.5 at roughly 66% — additionally Ansan concedes on average 2.5 goals per match, which raises the risk of goals. Over 3.5 looks weaker — seasonally 38% for the home side and 22% for the visitors, hence an assessment of Over 3.5 at about 32%. The strongest signal from the data is therefore Over 1.5 (high 88%/78%, total xG ~3.1 and BTTS above 67%), so I recommend staking on Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a half-time draw and an away win after full-time (X/2). I expect a low-scoring first half: hosts average 0.25 goals in the first half, visitors 0.11, and half-time draws occur in 38% (hosts) and 33% (visitors) of matches, favoring a goalless or low-goals first half. After the break Gimhae City should hold the advantage — they collected 11 points in second halves versus Ansan’s 3, with average second-half points of 1.22 (away) vs 0.38 (home); visitors score on average 0.78 goals in the second half, while hosts concede on average 1.88. Additionally, visitors have 22% wins this season versus 0% for the hosts and better shot conversion 11% vs 7%, and Ansan concede as many as 11 goals in minutes 76–90, which increases the likelihood of an away turnaround after half-time.