Ansan Greeners vs Suwon Bluewings: match statistics

Suwon Bluewings are clear favorites: this season they have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses and have scored 21 goals versus Ansan Greeners' 15, while in the last 5 matches Suwon scored 7 goals and won 3 times, whereas Ansan has 3 goals and 5 defeats. Offensively the visitors average 1.43 goals away and 1.61 xG per match, while the hosts at home have 0.9 goals and 1.31 xG, indicating higher quality chances for Suwon (1.61 vs 1.31 xG). Defensively the gap is even larger: Suwon concedes only 0.86 goals away and has 57% clean sheets, whereas Ansan at home concedes on average 2.1 goals per match, has 0% clean sheets and conceded 12 goals in the last 5 fixtures. The visitors also dominate possession and shots (61% possession and 13.43 shots away versus 49% and 10.1 shots for the hosts) and have a better conversion rate (11% vs 9%). Considering form (Ansan 0 points in the last 5 matches vs Suwon averaging 2 points in the last 5), the hosts’ pronounced negative goal difference at home (-12), and the advantage in xG and defense, I forecast a Suwon win and assign them 70% probability, 20% for a draw and 10% for a home upset.

I back No BTTS because both teams show low seasonal BTTS rates: Ansan 38% and Suwon 43%, well below the league average of 63%. Additionally, a high proportion of clean sheets — 50% for Ansan and 57% for Suwon — indicates that in many matches at least one side keeps a clean sheet. In the last 5 games both teams have BTTS 60%, but Ansan scored only 3 goals in those 5 matches (0.6 avg) and conceded 12 (2.4 avg), while Suwon scored 7 and conceded 5 (1.4/1.0), showing that Suwon is primarily creating the goals. xG and shots on target also favor the visitors: Suwon xG 1.61 vs Ansan xG against 1.15 and 4.86 SoT vs 3.88 for the hosts, yet the season-long low BTTS and high CS rates suggest it is more likely that only one side will score.

I project a total of 2.70 goals: Ansan about 1.20 and Suwon about 1.50. Calculations are based on xG: the home side have xG_for 1.39, while Suwon concede xG_against 0.92, which theoretically yields 1.31 for Ansan, but Ansan have scored only 0.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches, so I adjust the home expectation down to 1.20. The visitors have xG_for 1.61 and the hosts xG_against 1.15 (average 1.38), and Suwon have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches (1.4 per game) with a higher shot volume (13.43 vs 10.13), hence the 1.50 projection for Suwon. Season metrics show over 1.5 comes up frequently (Ansan 50%, Suwon 57%), while over 2.5 has only moderate backing (Ansan 38%, Suwon 57%, league average 56%), therefore the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5.

Half-time statistics favor the home side — Ansan led at the break in 4 matches (50%) versus Suwon’s 3 leads (43%), with HT goals averaging 0.63 for the hosts and 0.43 for the visitors (AVGHT 0.75 vs 0.57). After the break Suwon holds a clear advantage: they average 1.71 goals in the second half compared to Ansan’s 1.38 (AVG_2hg 1.71 vs 1.38) and win 56% of second halves versus 25% for the home side. The visitors’ superiority is also evident in performance quality — Suwon’s xG is 1.61 versus Ansan’s 1.39, with more shots (13.43 vs 10.13) and more shots on target (4.86 vs 3.88). Form amplifies this gap: Ansan’s last 5 matches read 'lllll' (0% wins, 0.0 pts average), while Suwon are 'dwlww' (60% wins, 2.0 pts average). Therefore the most likely scenario is a home lead at the break and an away victory after 90 minutes (HT/FT 1/2).