Ansan Greeners vs Yongin City: match statistics

I predict a home win because Ansan averages 1.00 goals in home matches versus just 0.33 goals scored by Yongin away. The visitors do generate higher xG (1.47 vs 1.12), take more shots (13.00 vs 8.33) and have greater possession (55% vs 49%), but their conversion rate is only 3% versus Ansan’s 12%, and Yongin fail to score in 67% of their away games. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities: Ansan concedes 2.00 goals on average at home and has 0% clean sheets, while Yongin concedes 1.67 goals away despite a 33% clean sheet rate. In the last 5 matches Ansan has 1.2 points per game and scored 5 goals, Yongin 0.8 points and 7 goals (both teams conceded 8), which indicates the hosts are more consistent in converting chances. Given the clearly superior offensive efficiency of the home side (conversion 12% vs 3% and lower FTS) I assign a 60% chance to an Ansan win, 25% to a draw and 15% to a Yongin victory.

I back BTTS - Yes because Ansan at home has a seasonal BTTS of 83% and 0% clean sheets, conceding on average 1.83 goals per match. Yongin scores only 0.33 goals per game seasonally with a BTTS of 33%, but in the last 5 matches they have scored 7 goals (1.4 avg) and also have 60% BTTS, indicating improved form. In terms of expected threat, Yongin has xG_for 1.47 versus the hosts' xG_against 1.70, while Ansan has xG_for 1.13 versus Yongin's xG_against 1.29, which suggests opportunities for both sides. The visitors average 13 shots with a low conversion rate of 3%, yet the volume (13 vs 7.67 for the hosts) increases the chance of at least one goal. Considering the hosts' 83% BTTS, 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches for both teams and the league BTTS rate of 63%, the 'yes' scenario looks stronger.

Ansan scores an average of 1.67 goals per match, while Yongin only 0.33, but xG shows 1.13 for Ansan and 1.47 for Yongin (2.60 xG combined), which indicates greater scoring potential than raw figures. Ansan has 83% of home matches over 2.5 goals, Yongin has 33%, and the league average is 2.76 goals/match; averaging projections I forecast 1.37 goals for Ansan and 1.26 for Yongin, 2.63 goals total. This produces a strong signal for Over 1.5 (I rate 86%), a moderate signal for Over 2.5 (62%) and favors Under 3.5 (69%). I pick Over 1.5 as the best line because Ansan has no clean sheets at home (0% CS) and 83% of home games exceed 2.5 goals, while Yongin’s high xG of 1.47 versus just 0.33 scored and a low finishing rate of 3% increases the likelihood of improved conversion and more goals in this match.

Ansan is markedly more active in the first half: on average 1.0 goals by half-time and 10 HT goals compared to 0.0 and only 1 HT goal for Yongin, and the home side led at the break in 33% of their matches while the visitors did so in 0%. At the same time, Ansan concedes most goals immediately after the interval — 5 conceded in minutes 46–60 and an average of 1.17 conceded goals in the second half versus only 0.67 scored, which increases the risk of surrendering a lead after the break. Yongin manage just 0.33 goals per game and 0.0% wins this season; despite a higher xG (1.47 vs 1.13) and more shots (13.0 vs 7.67), their conversion rate is only 3%, so they seldom turn chances into wins. For these reasons the strongest signal is Ansan leading at half-time followed by an equalizer after the break — HT/FT 1/X; I assign this scenario 32%, then 24% to 1/1 and 16% to X/1, while the combined probability of a Yongin victory I estimate at around 11%.