Antalyaspor vs Keçiörengücü: match statistics

Keçiörengücü have shown better form in their last five matches, collecting 7 points compared with Antalyaspor’s 4. The visitors scored 6 goals during this period, averaging 1.2 per match, while the hosts managed just 3, indicating significantly lower attacking efficiency from Antalyaspor. The defensive record is equally important: Keçiörengücü conceded 4 goals in five matches, whereas Antalyaspor conceded as many as 8. The hosts have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and had a two-game losing streak before their most recent win, while the visitors recorded 2 victories. Although the lack of complete season data limits confidence in the prediction, Keçiörengücü’s current goal record of 6:4 compared with Antalyaspor’s 3:8 supports an away win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Antalyaspor have scored only 3 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 per game, while both teams scored in just 20% of those fixtures. Keçiörengücü do have a higher xG, 1.93 compared with the hosts’ 1.27, but their defence has conceded an average of only 0.8 goals and 0.86 xG per match. The hosts have conceded 1.6 goals on average, so the visitors have good prospects of scoring, but Antalyaspor’s low attacking efficiency limits the chances of a response. BTTS occurred in 40% of Keçiörengücü’s last five matches, which also does not offset the hosts’ weak attacking record.

In their last five matches, Antalyaspor averaged just 0.6 goals, while Keçiörengücü conceded only 0.8 goals per game, limiting the hosts’ projection to around 1.0 goal. The visitors have greater attacking potential, as their average xG stands at 1.93 compared with the 1.46 xG allowed by Antalyaspor, which puts their expected goal tally at 1.45. Despite this, neither team’s results point to consistently high-scoring games: only 20% of the hosts’ recent matches and 40% of the visitors’ games finished Over 2.5 goals. The total projection of 2.45 goals, along with Antalyaspor’s 3:8 and Keçiörengücü’s 6:4 records from their last five matches, gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Keçiörengücü win, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 3 of their last 5 matches, equating to 60% of cases. During this run, Antalyaspor scored just 0.2 goals per match before the break and failed to score in the first half in 80% of their appearances, clearly limiting the hosts’ chances of taking an early lead. The visitors were more effective across their last five matches, averaging 1.2 goals compared with Antalyaspor’s 0.6, while conceding only 0.8 goals against the hosts’ 1.6. After the break, Antalyaspor conceded an average of 1.2 goals, whereas Keçiörengücü allowed their opponents just 0.2. Therefore, with an even start, the visitors have stronger foundations for turning the result in their favour in the second half.