Anyang vs Bucheon 1995: match statistics

Anyang are the favorites: they sit 4th versus Bucheon’s 11th. Anyang have scored 14 goals this season compared to Bucheon’s 8, and in the last 5 matches Anyang have scored 9 goals to Bucheon’s 3, confirming an offensive advantage. At home Anyang averages 9.25 shots and 3.25 on target per match with an 11% conversion rate, while Bucheon away average 8.4 shots and 2.2 on target with a 10% conversion, so the home side creates more and converts chances more efficiently. Additionally Anyang have averaged 1.8 points per match in their last 5 outings versus Bucheon’s 0.8; the percentage of matches without a goal is 25% for Anyang versus 60% for Bucheon, indicating significantly greater inconsistency in the visitors’ attack. Defensively Anyang concede 1.0 goals on average in home matches versus Bucheon’s 1.2 away, and average xG are 1.15 for Anyang and 1.04 for Bucheon with xG against both at 1.35, so the home advantage stems mainly from better quality and quantity of chances. The lack of clean sheets for Anyang at home (0%) versus 40% clean sheets for Bucheon away reduces certainty, but overall 14 vs 8 goals, higher chance creation tempo and better finishing point to backing the home win.

I assess BTTS probability at 38% (Yes) vs 62% (No); therefore I recommend a 'No' selection. Anyang has a seasonal BTTS rate of 60% and BTTS in 80% of its last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals in those 5 games (9 goals) with xG_for 1.32, which increases the hosts' chance to score. Bucheon 1995 has a seasonal BTTS rate of only 20% and 20% in the last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 goals in the last 5 (3 goals) and recording an average of 2.2 shots on target and xG_for 1.04, which limits the visitors' scoring probability. Seasonally both teams average 0.8 goals per game, but Bucheon concedes 1.6 goals on average in the last 5 and shows weaker attacking form, while the league average BTTS is 55%, providing mixed signals. In practice, Bucheon's offensive weakness (20% seasonal BTTS, 0.6 goals in last 5) outweighs Anyang's offensive uptick, so the 'No — both teams not to score' scenario is statistically stronger.

Averaging offensive and defensive xG values yields a forecast of 1.34 goals for Anyang (xG_for 1.32; xG against opponents 1.35) and 1.33 for Bucheon (xG_for 1.04; xG against opponents 1.61), totalling approximately 2.67 goals. A Poisson model with λ≈2.67 translates to ~75% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~50% for Over 2.5 and ~28% for Over 3.5. Seasonal statistics support this view: Anyang has 80% of matches with Over 1.5 goals, Bucheon 40%, and both teams have 40% of matches with Over 2.5 goals. Additionally, Anyang averages 3.8 shots on target and 10.8 shots per match with a 7% conversion rate, while Bucheon averages 2.2 on target and 8.4 shots with a 10% conversion; in the last 5 matches Anyang scored 9 goals (1.8 avg) vs. Bucheon’s 3 goals (0.6). Given the projected 2.67 goals and the home side’s historical >1.5 involvement, the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time — both teams recorded half-time draws in 60% of their matches, and the average goals at the break are only 0.2 for Anyang and 0.2 for Bucheon, indicating low scoring before the interval. By full-time the visitors are favored: Bucheon win 40% of matches season-to-date and average 1.4 points per match, whereas Anyang have 0% wins and 0.6 points per match, which gives the away side the edge over 90 minutes. The second 45 minutes appears more prolific and favors Bucheon — the visitors score on average 1.0 goals after the break and have 60% of matches with a post-break goal, while hosts concede on average 1.4 goals per match versus 1.2 for the visitors. Although Anyang generate higher xG (1.32 vs 1.04 for Bucheon), they also concede higher xG against (1.61 vs 1.35), which reveals susceptibility to conceding and supports a post-break turnaround by the more efficient away team. Given these data, the strongest signal is a half-time draw and a Bucheon win at full-time (HT/FT X/2).