Anyang vs Incheon United: match statistics

Incheon United have clearly superior away numbers: they average 1.60 goals per match compared with Anyang’s 1.18 at home, while conceding just 1.20 goals versus the hosts’ 1.36. The visitors also create more high-quality chances, recording an xG of 1.49 and 4.40 shots on target per game, compared with Anyang’s 1.26 and 3.36, respectively. Anyang have failed to keep a clean sheet in any home match, while their defence allows opponents an average xG of 1.64, which should benefit Incheon’s attacking efficiency. The teams’ recent five-match form is similar in terms of points, with both averaging 1.2 points per game, but Incheon have lost just once and drawn three times, whereas Anyang have suffered 3 defeats. The hosts’ high home draw rate of 45% increases the likelihood of a closely contested match, but the visitors’ edge in chance creation and defensive stability points to a narrow Incheon victory.

The case for both teams to score is strengthened primarily by their current form: in their last 5 matches, both Anyang and Incheon recorded BTTS in 80% of games. Anyang averaged 1.4 goals scored during this period but conceded as many as 1.8, while Incheon scored and conceded 1.4 goals per match. Their attacking potential is also reflected in their xG figures from the last five outings: 1.51 for the hosts and a very strong 1.76 for the visitors, with Anyang’s xG against standing at 1.59. Over the course of the season, Incheon have recorded BTTS in 60% of matches compared with 50% for Anyang, while both teams rarely keep a clean sheet, doing so in 30% and 25% of games respectively. Although Anyang have failed to score in 25% of their league matches this season, the current number of chances and the hosts’ weaker defensive setup make the BTTS - Yes scenario more likely.

The projection of 2.65 goals is based on fairly similar chance-quality metrics: Anyang creates an average of 1.50 xG, while Incheon averages 1.49 xG per match. At the same time, the hosts score only 1.08 goals per game this season, while their opponents keep a clean sheet in 30% of matches, limiting the potential for a very high-scoring game. The 3.5 line went under in 83% of Anyang’s matches and 70% of Incheon’s, clearly more often than would be expected in a scenario involving four or more goals. The hosts’ last five matches have been more open, with 80% finishing Over 2.5 goals, but Incheon went over this line in only 40% of such games. Therefore, the most consistent edge lies with Under 3.5: the data supports two or three goals but does not provide strong enough evidence for at least four.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and at full-time, as Incheon were level at the break in 70% of their matches, with that figure rising to 75% across their last five games. Anyang score only 0.50 goals per match before the break and failed to score in the first half in 67% of their games, while Incheon concede an average of just 0.50 goals during this period. At full-time, the visitors have drawn as many as 40% of their matches this season and 60% of their last five, limiting the advantage suggested by their superior average of 1.60 goals scored compared with Anyang’s 1.08. The two sides are closely matched in chance quality, with average xG of 1.50 for the hosts and 1.49 for the visitors, while both defences allow approximately 1.3 xG. This points to a balanced, cautious match in which the first half particularly favours a draw, with neither team having clear grounds to pull away after the break.