Anyang vs Jeonbuk Motors: match statistics

The favorite is Jeonbuk (2nd) against Anyang (7th), supported by the visitors' superior form: Jeonbuk scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches with a 3-1-1 record and an average of 2.0 points per match, while Anyang have 7 goals in their last 5 and 1.6 pts (2-2-1). Defensively Jeonbuk have a clear edge — they concede an average of 0.5 goals away and keep 50% clean sheets, whereas Anyang concede 1.0 goals at home and have 0% clean sheets. In chance creation the visitors also dominate: average away xG 1.5 versus the home side's xG 1.17, 4.67 SOT and 11.83 shots per game versus Anyang's 2.8 SOT and 9.2 shots. However the hosts are more efficient with shots (9% vs 7%) and have a higher share of home matches without conceding goals (40% FTS vs 33% FTS for Jeonbuk), and average goals are similar (0.8 for Anyang vs 0.83 for Jeonbuk), so I expect a narrow win for the visitors with a real risk of a draw.

Anyang scores an average of 2.33 goals per match this season and has BTTS at 67% at home, while Jeonbuk averages only 0.83 goals away this season and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of away games. However, in the last 5 matches Jeonbuk averages 2.2 goals and has 60% BTTS, whereas Anyang in the last 5 matches records 1.4 goals and 40% BTTS, indicating an improvement in the visitors' attacking form. The xG of both teams is similar (Anyang 1.7 vs Jeonbuk 1.5) with xG against at 1.34 and 1.46, so both sides are creating chances above 1.0 xG. Considering Anyang's season BTTS rate of 67%, the fact that Anyang concedes an average of 1.33 goals at home, and Jeonbuk's recent offensive run, I back BTTS - Yes at a probability of 62% versus 38% for No.

I project 1.62 goals for Anyang and 1.43 for Jeonbuk, totaling 3.05 goals. Anyang at home averages 2.33 goals (xG 1.70) and produces 13 shots with 5.17 on target at an 18% conversion rate, while Jeonbuk away averages 0.83 goals (xG 1.50) with a 7% conversion rate, highlighting the hosts' offensive advantage. Historically, Anyang’s home matches have exceeded 1.5 goals in 100% of cases and >2.5 in 83% of games, whereas Jeonbuk records 50% for >1.5 and 0% for >2.5 this season, giving a strong signal for Over 1.5 and a moderate signal for Over 2.5. Additionally, Jeonbuk’s last 5 matches show higher xG (1.71) and an average of 2.2 goals, increasing variance and the likelihood of goals in this fixture. Based on this, the best pick is Over 1.5 (most reliable signal), with Over 2.5 remaining a moderate-strength option.

In the last 5 matches Jeonbuk led at the break in 4 of them (80%) and averaged 1.2 goals by half-time, while Anyang averaged 0.8 goals by half-time. However, Anyang is significantly more dangerous after the break: in the second half they average 1.83 goals (AVG_2hg_home) and 1.17 goals scored after the break (scored_2hg_avg_home), with 5 goals occurring between 76' and 90' (5.0). Additionally, Anyang generates more chances and converts them more efficiently — xG 1.7 versus 1.5 (xg_for_avg_home vs xg_for_avg_away) and a conversion rate of 18% versus 7% (shot_conversion_rate_home vs shot_conversion_rate_away). The combination of Jeonbuk’s strong starts to the break (80% leads) and Anyang’s ability to stage second-half turnarounds provides the strongest signal for a scenario where Jeonbuk leads at half-time but Anyang wins at the final whistle (HT/FT = 2/1). Therefore I assign this scenario the highest weight (35%), with a relatively high probability that Jeonbuk may hold the lead (2/2 — 18%) or that the match will swing after the break in favor of the home side (X/1 — 12%).