Anyang vs Ulsan: match statistics

Ulsan are the clear favorites: they sit 2nd in the table versus Anyang’s 5th and have 15 goals this season compared to Anyang’s 8 at home. In the last 5 matches Ulsan scored 8 goals and average 1.4 points per game, while Anyang scored 4 and average 1.0 ppg. Chance quality strongly favors Ulsan — the visitors average 14 shots and 5.25 on target per away match, whereas Anyang averages 8.67 shots and 3.33 on target at home; xG is 1.71 vs 1.08 in Ulsan’s favor. Finishing efficiency is similar (11% Ulsan vs 12% Anyang), so Ulsan’s advantage comes mainly from a higher volume and quality of chances (on average 1.5 goals per away game vs 1.0 for the home side). Defensively both teams concede about 1 goal per game (Anyang 1.0, Ulsan 1.0), but Anyang have no clean sheets at home (0%) while Ulsan keep clean sheets in 25% of away matches, which further supports an away victory.

I assess BTTS probability at 70% vs 30% and recommend a “BTTS - Yes” bet, because the data strongly supports both teams scoring. Anyang has a seasonal BTTS of 75%, scores 2.25 goals and concedes 1.5 per match, and their xG_for 1.97 is higher than Ulsan’s xG_against 1.55, indicating real chances for the home side. Ulsan has a seasonal BTTS of 50% and scores 1.5 goals per match, but their xG_for 1.71 exceeds Anyang’s xG_against 1.32, and in the last 5 matches Ulsan’s xG_for is 1.92 with 8 goals scored, so they can respond. Additionally, both teams have only 25% clean sheets seasonally; in the last 5 meetings BTTS was 60% for each side, and average shots on target 6.5 vs 5.25 favor goal exchange, therefore the strongest signal from the data is the “both teams to score” scenario.

xG-based model: Anyang has xG_for 1.97, Ulsan 1.71, and xG against of 1.55 (Ulsan) and 1.32 (Anyang), which yields a forecast of 1.76 goals for Anyang and 1.52 for Ulsan (total 3.28). With λ=3.28 the Poisson distribution gives about an 84% chance of >1.5 goals, about 64% for >2.5 and about 42% for >3.5; I adjusted these values accounting for seasonal and recent form. Support for Over 2.5 is strong: Anyang has seasonOver25 75% and seasonBTTS 75%, Ulsan has seasonOver25 50% and in the last 5 matches 60% over2.5, which pushes the probability for over2.5 to ~66%. At the same time the last 5 matches show a drop for Anyang to 0.8 goals per game and last5 xG 1.08 (vs season 1.97), so I do not inflate the chances for >3.5. As a result the best line to play is Over 2.5 given the expected 3.28 goals and the strong seasonal over/BTTS metrics.

At half-time the hosts are more likely to be leading: Anyang led at the break in 50% of their home matches and average 1.0 goals by half-time, whereas Ulsan led at the break in only 25% of their away matches and average 0.5 goals by half-time. However, on full-time metrics Ulsan show stronger figures — the visitors have 75% away wins and earn an average of 2.25 points per match compared to Anyang’s 50% wins and 1.75 points. Second-half statistics indicate an advantage for Ulsan: the visitors won the second half in 50% of cases versus 25% for the hosts, and second-half goals average 1.25 for Anyang and 1.0 for Ulsan, suggesting Ulsan more frequently complete a turnaround. Additionally, xG shows 1.97 for Anyang versus 1.71 for Ulsan, which explains the hosts’ chances before the break, but given the visitors’ higher effectiveness after half-time the 1/2 scenario (Anyang leading at half-time, Ulsan winning on full-time) is the strongest signal from the data.