APR vs Bugesera: match statistics
APR is the clear favorite for this fixture, sitting 2nd in the table with an impressive 83% home win rate and only one defeat all season. The hosts are in excellent form, winning 5 of their last 6 home matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored while maintaining a 67% clean sheet record. Conversely, Bugesera has failed to win a single away game this campaign (0% away win rate), recording a high 43% loss rate and offensive struggles with an average of just 0.57 goals per away match. The difference in xG (1.17 for APR vs 1.14 for Bugesera) and conversion rate (24% vs 10%) further confirms the hosts' advantage. Considering all statistics, an APR victory is the most probable outcome, although the visitors' solid defense (43% away clean sheets) suggests this could be a low-scoring affair.
APR vs Bugesera: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
APR played Bugesera in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match was played on 3 January 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
APR: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Bugesera: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
APR scores 1.38 and concedes 0.69 goals per match. Bugesera scores 0.73 and concedes 0.93. League average: 1.95 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: APR 54%, Bugesera 40%. Over 2.5: APR 46%, Bugesera 33%. League level: BTTS 39%, Over 2.5 32%.
xG, shots and style
APR has higher xG: 1.19 vs 0.96. APR: 7.8 shots per match, Bugesera: 5.5.
Match halves
APR: half-time lead 46%, second-half goals 0.54. Bugesera: half-time lead 7%, second-half goals 0.53.
Goals by minute
APR: 31-45+ (6 goals). Bugesera: 61-75 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 1.95 goals per match, BTTS 39%, Over 2.5 32%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
APR is the clear favorite for this fixture, sitting 2nd in the table with an impressive 83% home win rate and only one defeat all season. The hosts are in excellent form, winning 5 of their last 6 home matches, averaging 1.67 goals scored while maintaining a 67% clean sheet record. Conversely, Bugesera has failed to win a single away game this campaign (0% away win rate), recording a high 43% loss rate and offensive struggles with an average of just 0.57 goals per away match. The difference in xG (1.17 for APR vs 1.14 for Bugesera) and conversion rate (24% vs 10%) further confirms the hosts' advantage. Considering all statistics, an APR victory is the most probable outcome, although the visitors' solid defense (43% away clean sheets) suggests this could be a low-scoring affair.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| APR | Bugesera | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.58 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
APR is 57% better for: last-5 form.
2.2 pts / match - APR · 1.4 pts / match - Bugesera
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
APR is 89% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - APR · 0.73 goals / match - Bugesera
APR is 35% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.69 goals / match - APR · 0.93 goals / match - Bugesera
APR scores in 77% of matches (10 of 13 matches), while Bugesera keeps a clean sheet in 47% (7 of 15 matches).
Bugesera scores in 60% of matches (9 of 15 matches), while APR keeps a clean sheet in 46% (6 of 13 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - APR
Over / Under - Bugesera
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
APR is 121% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.77 pts / match - APR · 0.8 pts / match - Bugesera
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
APR - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 46% of matches and wins 54%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Bugesera - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 7% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +5 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
APR
Bugesera
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| APR | Liga | Bugesera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.08 | 1.95 | ▼ 1.67 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 54% | 39% | • 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 46% | 32% | • 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 46% | 37% | ▲ 47% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 60% | ▼ 47% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 62% | 66% | ▼ 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- APRGoalWilliam Togui
- APRGoalDjibril Cheick Ouattara
FAQ
What was the result of APR vs Bugesera?
The National Soccer League match finished APR 2:1 Bugesera. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before APR vs Bugesera?
APR score 1.38 goals per game on average and Bugesera 0.73. The National Soccer League average is 1.95 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 32% of games. Both teams score in 54% of APR's matches and 40% of Bugesera's.
What form are APR and Bugesera in?
Over the last 5 games APR have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Bugesera 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for APR vs Bugesera?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.