Araz vs Sabah: match statistics

I predict an away win (2). Sabah scored 60 goals this season while Araz has 35, and Sabah averages 2.5 goals away versus 1.33 for Araz at home. Defensively Sabah also performs better — conceding 0.83 goals away on average, while Araz concedes 1.33 at home; the visitors have 42% clean sheets away compared to 33% for the hosts. In chance quality Sabah averages 5.58 shots on target with a 21% conversion rate, whereas Araz has 3.25 and 12%, and xG is 1.57 for Sabah versus 1.36 for Araz. Sabah scored 20 goals in the last 5 matches and is averaging 2.2 points per game in that period versus 1.8 for Araz, therefore I assess the probabilities as: away 65%, draw 20%, home 15%.

I tip BTTS - YES. Sabah shows a strong attacking signal — 58% of matches with BTTS this season and as high as 80% in the last 5 games, averaging 4.0 goals in those 5 matches (recent xG 1.96). Araz scores 2.31 goals per home game season-to-date and has a seasonal BTTS of 46%, but in the last 5 matches Araz has only a 20% BTTS rate and averages 1.0 goal (xG 0.94), indicating a drop in the home side’s offensive form. Defensively, Araz concedes 0.54 goals at home across the season, while Sabah concedes 0.83 away, but in the last 5 matches Araz conceded 1.6 and Sabah 1.4 goals per game, so the risk of goals on both sides is increasing. Additionally, the visitors have a higher shot conversion 21% versus the hosts’ 15% and a similar number of shots on target (5.58 vs 5.77), which is why I assessed BTTS probability at 70% for YES and 30% for NO.

I assess total expected goals at around 2.90 (Araz 1.57, Sabah 1.33), calculated as the average of team xG and opponent xG conceded (Araz xG_for 2.06 vs Sabah xG_against 1.07; Sabah xG_for 1.57 vs Araz xG_against 1.09). Seasonally Araz has 69% of matches with over 1.5 goals and Sabah 83%, which is a strong signal for Over 1.5; both teams also have 92% of matches with at least 0.5 goals. Sabah is in clearly superior attacking form — in the last 5 matches they scored 20 goals (4.0 per game) with 11.75 average shots and 21% conversion, while Araz has 5 goals in the last 5 (1.0 per game). Additionally, second halves average 2.08 goals in Sabah matches and 1.54 in Araz matches, increasing the likelihood of goals after halftime. Given these figures the strongest and most probable bet is Over 1.5 (estimated probability ~79%), while Over 2.5 also has a moderate chance (~56%).

Sabah shows a clear tendency to lead at the break: they were leading at half-time in 67% of matches this season, and that figure rose to 80% over the last five games. First-half goals conceded are almost negligible for Sabah (Araz 1.15 vs Sabah 1.17 first-half goals scored, but Sabah concedes only 0.08 before the break vs Araz’s 0.15), which increases their chances of being ahead after 45 minutes. Over the full 90 minutes both teams are productive (average goals Araz 2.31 vs Sabah 2.50), with Araz generating higher xG (2.06 vs 1.57) and more shots (15.23 vs 11.75), while Sabah compensates with superior finishing (21% vs 15%). The second half is more goal-prone (Araz scores at least once after the break in 77% of matches, Sabah in 83%), so a home-side turnaround is possible, but HT/FT stats and current form favor the visitors. Given Sabah’s advantage at half-time (67%/80%) and their finishing efficiency, I select the scenario of Sabah leading at the break and winning the match (2/2) as the strongest signal; I assign it about a 40% probability, with draws or an Araz turnaround being significant but less likely.