Arba Minch Kenema vs Sidama Bunna: match statistics
Arba Minch Kenema vs Sidama Bunna: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Arba Minch Kenema played Sidama Bunna in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 20 May 2026. Venue: Arba Minch Stadium. Final score: 0:3.
Current form
Arba Minch Kenema: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Sidama Bunna: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Arba Minch Kenema scores 0.78 and concedes 1.16 goals per match. Sidama Bunna scores 1.09 and concedes 0.63. League average: 1.80 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Arba Minch Kenema 44%, Sidama Bunna 31%. Over 2.5: Arba Minch Kenema 25%, Sidama Bunna 25%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Sidama Bunna has higher xG: 1.27 vs 1.12. Arba Minch Kenema: 7.0 shots per match, Sidama Bunna: 8.0.
Match halves
Arba Minch Kenema: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.41. Sidama Bunna: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.66.
Goals by minute
Arba Minch Kenema: 76-90+ (7 goals). Sidama Bunna: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.80 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Sidama Bunna is the favorite in this match — they sit 1st in the table while Arba Minch Kenema are 20th; Sidama have a goal record of 35 scored and 20 conceded versus the hosts' 25 scored and 37 conceded. The visitors are superior defensively and in chance conversion: Sidama concede 0.81 goals on average away, register 3.25 shots on target per game and have a conversion rate of 14%, while Arba at home concede 1.5 goals, have 1.93 shots on target and a 10% conversion. Nevertheless Arba show slightly better form over the last five matches (5 goals and PPG 1.2 with 1 win) compared to Sidama, who have scored only 2 goals in the last 5 and have PPG 0.8, which gives the hosts a realistic chance to take points. Arba’s home stats also show a high draw rate (44% of home matches) and 56% of home matches without a goal, while Sidama have 38% clean sheets away and 38% of away matches without scoring — this increases the likelihood of a low-scoring game or a draw. Considering Sidama’s defensive edge, higher xG (1.29 vs 1.09) and better shot efficiency, I recommend a Sidama Bunna win (2) with probability distribution: 15% home, 30% draw, 55% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assign BTTS probability at 25% (Yes) and 75% (No), so the optimal pick is 'No'. Arba Minch concedes only 0.44 goals per game and has a 69% clean sheet rate this season; in the last 5 matches they average 0.8 goals conceded — a strong signal for No Goal. Sidama records 1.13 goals per game and xG 1.29, but in the last 5 fixtures they scored just 2 goals (0.4 per game) and had 0% BTTS, which diminishes their scoring threat. Additionally, the league has 41% BTTS, yet 80% of matches finish with a clean sheet and an average goals total of 1.8, and the teams' season BTTS rates are 19% (Arba) vs 44% (Sidama), which together favor the 'No' outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and historical percentage analysis points to a low total: home xG is 1.24, away xG 1.29, and after adjusting for opponent defense this yields an expected 1.16 goals for Arba Minch and 1.14 for Sidama Bunna (total ~2.30). Historically Arba Minch matches finish under 2.5 goals in 87% of cases, and Sidama Bunna in 62%, providing strong support for Under 2.5 (average ~75%). The hosts also have 69% clean sheets and only 19% of matches with both teams scoring, while the visitors have averaged 0.4 goals in their last 5 games, further reducing the likelihood of many goals. Over 1.5 is still possible (I estimate 72%) given the combined xG of 2.53 and seasonal goals averages 1.06+1.13=2.19, but I assess Over 2.5 at 25% and not a strong signal — therefore I recommend Under 2.5 as the best option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Arba Minch very rarely concedes before the break—on average just 0.06 goals and with 94% clean sheets at HT; the hosts were level at the break in 12 of 16 home matches (75%), so the most likely half-time score is a draw (most frequently 0-0). In the second half Arba Minch scores on average 0.75 goals and in 75% of matches at least one goal is scored after the break, while Sidama as the away side has only 38% clean sheets and scores on average 0.56 goals after half-time, which gives the hosts an advantage late on. Overall the hosts win 50% of home matches and average 1.81 points per game versus 1.63 for the visitors, so with a draw at half-time it is easier for them to turn the result in their favour. For these reasons the strongest signal is a half-time draw and a home win at full-time (X/1), which I assign the highest probability.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Arba Minch Kenema | Sidama Bunna | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Arba Minch Kenema is 50% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Arba Minch Kenema · 0.8 pts / match - Sidama Bunna
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Sidama Bunna is 40% better for: goals scored per match.
0.78 goals / match - Arba Minch Kenema · 1.09 goals / match - Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna is 84% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.16 goals / match - Arba Minch Kenema · 0.63 goals / match - Sidama Bunna
Arba Minch Kenema scores in 53% of matches (17 of 32 matches), while Sidama Bunna keeps a clean sheet in 53% (17 of 32 matches).
Sidama Bunna scores in 66% of matches (21 of 32 matches), while Arba Minch Kenema keeps a clean sheet in 31% (10 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Arba Minch Kenema
Over / Under - Sidama Bunna
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sidama Bunna is 45% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.97 pts / match - Arba Minch Kenema · 1.41 pts / match - Sidama Bunna
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Arba Minch Kenema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 16%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Sidama Bunna - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Arba Minch Kenema
Sidama Bunna
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Arba Minch Kenema | Liga | Sidama Bunna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 1.94 | 1.80 | • 1.72 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 44% | 41% | ▼ 31% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 25% | 28% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 31% | 40% | ▲ 53% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 66% | 54% | • 53% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 53% | 60% | • 59% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Sidama BunnaGoalMesfin Tafesse
- Sidama BunnaGoalMesfin Tafesse
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Arba Minch Kenema 0 - 1 - 0 Sidama Bunna. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Arba Minch Kenema vs Sidama Bunna?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Arba Minch Kenema 0:3 Sidama Bunna. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Arba Minch Kenema vs Sidama Bunna?
Arba Minch Kenema score 0.78 goals per game on average and Sidama Bunna 1.09. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.80 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Arba Minch Kenema's matches and 31% of Sidama Bunna's.
What form are Arba Minch Kenema and Sidama Bunna in?
Over the last 5 games Arba Minch Kenema have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Sidama Bunna 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Arba Minch Kenema vs Sidama Bunna?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.