Arbroath vs Ayr United: match statistics
Arbroath presents solid home form with a 50% win rate and just 8% losses at their own stadium, making them the favorite for this meeting. The hosts score an average of 1.75 goals per match at home, outperforming Ayr United's offense (1.31 goals away), and their goal difference in home matches stands at +7. Ayr United is characterized by a high percentage of away draws (46%), suggesting defensive stability, though their recent form is worrying with just 1 point per match in the last 5 games. xG statistics show a slight advantage for the hosts (1.44 vs 1.38), which, combined with an advantage in shot conversion (15% vs 12%), speaks for an Arbroath victory. Considering the visitors' tendency to draw and the defensive solidity of both teams, the duel may be close, hence the relatively high probability of a draw, but the home advantage and Arbroath's better home form give them the best chance for three points.
Arbroath vs Ayr United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Arbroath played Ayr United in Championship (Scotland). The match was played on 3 March 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Arbroath: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Ayr United: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Arbroath scores 1.38 and concedes 1.23 goals per match. Ayr United scores 1.24 and concedes 1.20. League average: 2.44 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Arbroath 58%, Ayr United 64%. Over 2.5: Arbroath 50%, Ayr United 40%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Ayr United has higher xG: 1.37 vs 1.34. Arbroath: 10.8 shots per match, Ayr United: 10.7.
Match halves
Arbroath: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.96. Ayr United: half-time lead 48%, second-half goals 0.36.
Goals by minute
Arbroath: 46-60 (9 goals). Ayr United: 0-15 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.44 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Arbroath presents solid home form with a 50% win rate and just 8% losses at their own stadium, making them the favorite for this meeting. The hosts score an average of 1.75 goals per match at home, outperforming Ayr United's offense (1.31 goals away), and their goal difference in home matches stands at +7. Ayr United is characterized by a high percentage of away draws (46%), suggesting defensive stability, though their recent form is worrying with just 1 point per match in the last 5 games. xG statistics show a slight advantage for the hosts (1.44 vs 1.38), which, combined with an advantage in shot conversion (15% vs 12%), speaks for an Arbroath victory. Considering the visitors' tendency to draw and the defensive solidity of both teams, the duel may be close, hence the relatively high probability of a draw, but the home advantage and Arbroath's better home form give them the best chance for three points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Arbroath | Ayr United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Arbroath is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Arbroath · 1 pts / match - Ayr United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Arbroath is 11% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Arbroath · 1.24 goals / match - Ayr United
Arbroath scores in 69% of matches (18 of 26 matches), while Ayr United keeps a clean sheet in 28% (7 of 25 matches).
Ayr United scores in 76% of matches (19 of 25 matches), while Arbroath keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Arbroath
Over / Under - Ayr United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ayr United is 46% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.12 pts / match - Arbroath · 1.64 pts / match - Ayr United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Arbroath - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ayr United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 48% of matches and wins 28%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Arbroath
Ayr United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Arbroath | Liga | Ayr United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.62 | 2.44 | • 2.44 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 49% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 44% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 32% | ▼ 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 62% | 70% | ▲ 84% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 77% | 70% | ▼ 60% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Arbroath 0 - 2 - 0 Ayr United. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Arbroath vs Ayr United?
The Championship match finished Arbroath 1:1 Ayr United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Arbroath and Ayr United?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Arbroath won 0, Ayr United won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Arbroath vs Ayr United?
Arbroath score 1.38 goals per game on average and Ayr United 1.24. The Championship average is 2.44 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Arbroath's matches and 64% of Ayr United's.
What form are Arbroath and Ayr United in?
Over the last 5 games Arbroath have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Ayr United 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Arbroath vs Ayr United?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.