Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic: match statistics
Arbroath sits in 3rd place in the table and shows solid home form with a 45% win rate at home, but their last 5 matches overall have yielded only 1.2 points per game. Dunfermline Athletic is in 6th position, but demonstrates better recent form (1.8 PPG) and an impressive 42% away win rate. The hosts have a possession advantage in home matches (47% vs the visitors' 50% away), but their goal-scoring efficiency (1.55 goals/match) is similar to the away side's (1.42 goals/match). A key factor is that Dunfermline has better form in the last 5 matches and an identical goal difference (+5) in their away fixtures as Arbroath has at home. Considering the high number of draws for the hosts at home (45%) and the balanced statistics of both teams, the most probable outcome appears to be a draw, although the slight home advantage from playing in front of their own crowd cannot be ignored.
Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Arbroath played Dunfermline Athletic in Championship (Scotland). The match was played on 21 February 2026. Final score: 4:2.
Current form
Arbroath: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Dunfermline Athletic: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Arbroath scores 1.33 and concedes 1.25 goals per match. Dunfermline Athletic scores 1.26 and concedes 1.13. League average: 2.42 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Arbroath 58%, Dunfermline Athletic 35%. Over 2.5: Arbroath 50%, Dunfermline Athletic 39%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Arbroath has higher xG: 1.35 vs 1.33. Arbroath: 10.8 shots per match, Dunfermline Athletic: 10.3.
Match halves
Arbroath: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.92. Dunfermline Athletic: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.61.
Goals by minute
Arbroath: 46-60 (8 goals). Dunfermline Athletic: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.42 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Arbroath sits in 3rd place in the table and shows solid home form with a 45% win rate at home, but their last 5 matches overall have yielded only 1.2 points per game. Dunfermline Athletic is in 6th position, but demonstrates better recent form (1.8 PPG) and an impressive 42% away win rate. The hosts have a possession advantage in home matches (47% vs the visitors' 50% away), but their goal-scoring efficiency (1.55 goals/match) is similar to the away side's (1.42 goals/match). A key factor is that Dunfermline has better form in the last 5 matches and an identical goal difference (+5) in their away fixtures as Arbroath has at home. Considering the high number of draws for the hosts at home (45%) and the balanced statistics of both teams, the most probable outcome appears to be a draw, although the slight home advantage from playing in front of their own crowd cannot be ignored.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Arbroath | Dunfermline Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Dunfermline Athletic is 20% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Arbroath · 1.2 pts / match - Dunfermline Athletic
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Arbroath is 6% better for: goals scored per match.
1.33 goals / match - Arbroath · 1.26 goals / match - Dunfermline Athletic
Dunfermline Athletic is 11% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.25 goals / match - Arbroath · 1.13 goals / match - Dunfermline Athletic
Arbroath scores in 71% of matches (17 of 24 matches), while Dunfermline Athletic keeps a clean sheet in 39% (9 of 23 matches).
Dunfermline Athletic scores in 65% of matches (15 of 23 matches), while Arbroath keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Arbroath
Over / Under - Dunfermline Athletic
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Dunfermline Athletic is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.13 pts / match - Arbroath · 1.3 pts / match - Dunfermline Athletic
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Arbroath - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Dunfermline Athletic - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Arbroath
Dunfermline Athletic
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Arbroath | Liga | Dunfermline Athletic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.58 | 2.42 | • 2.39 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 49% | ▼ 35% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 44% | ▼ 39% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 32% | ▲ 39% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 69% | ▲ 83% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 79% | 71% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Arbroath 1 - 0 - 1 Dunfermline Athletic. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic?
The Championship match finished Arbroath 4:2 Dunfermline Athletic. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Arbroath and Dunfermline Athletic?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Arbroath won 1, Dunfermline Athletic won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic?
Arbroath score 1.33 goals per game on average and Dunfermline Athletic 1.26. The Championship average is 2.42 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Arbroath's matches and 35% of Dunfermline Athletic's.
What form are Arbroath and Dunfermline Athletic in?
Over the last 5 games Arbroath have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Dunfermline Athletic 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.