Arda vs Ludogorets: match statistics
Arda vs Ludogorets: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Arda played Ludogorets in First League (Bulgaria). The match was played on 15 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Arda: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Ludogorets: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Arda scores 1.10 and concedes 0.93 goals per match. Ludogorets scores 1.97 and concedes 0.66. League average: 2.35 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Arda 28%, Ludogorets 41%. Over 2.5: Arda 34%, Ludogorets 52%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Ludogorets has higher xG: 2.09 vs 1.46. Arda: 11.2 shots per match, Ludogorets: 16.3.
Match halves
Arda: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.48. Ludogorets: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 1.31.
Goals by minute
Arda: 76-90+ (9 goals). Ludogorets: 76-90+ (18 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First League: 2.35 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorite is Ludogorets — the visitors sit 2nd and average 2.07 goals scored and 0.71 conceded on the road, while Arda at home average 1.00 scored and 0.86 conceded. The visitors show higher efficiency: 5.64 shots on target and 14.14 shots overall away with a 15% conversion rate, versus Arda’s 4.5 on target, 13.64 overall and 7% conversion; season totals are 57 goals for Ludogorets versus 32 for Arda. In the last 5 matches Ludogorets scored 14 goals with a record of 4 wins and 1 draw, while Arda scored 8 with 3 wins and 2 losses; points per game in the last 5 are 2.6 for Ludogorets and 1.8 for Arda. Defensive metrics also favor the visitors: only 19 goals conceded this season, 64% of away matches with a clean sheet and average xG against 1.02, versus Arda’s 27 conceded, 43% home clean sheets and xG against 1.13. Considering better conversion (15% vs 7%), lower share of matches without a goal (21% vs 43%), higher xG (1.86 vs 1.72) and current form, I back an away win; probability distribution: 65% Ludogorets, 20% draw and 15% Arda.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS rates are 47% for Arda and 36% for Ludogorets (league average 44%), providing a baseline signal for a moderate chance of both teams scoring. Stronger evidence against BTTS is the high clean sheet rates: Arda records a clean sheet in 53% of matches and Ludogorets in 64%, which significantly reduces the likelihood of Goal/Goal. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in only 40% of Arda’s games and 20% of Ludogorets’ games; Ludogorets conceded just 0.2 goals on average in this run, while Arda scored 1.6 on average, indicating opponents’ defensive advantage. On one hand Arda generates high home xG (2.3) and averages 18.33 shots with 6.67 on target, but has a low conversion rate of 10%, whereas Ludogorets has 1.86 xG away and a higher conversion rate of 15% — so Arda creates chances but converts them less often. Considering the 53% and 64% clean sheet rates, weakened BTTS figures in the last 5 matches (40% / 20%) and the league BTTS level of 44%, I forecast the No Goal scenario as stronger (63% vs 37%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Combining attack xG and opponent defensive xG yields approximately 1.66 goals for Arda and 1.39 for Ludogorets: Arda attack xG 2.30 versus opponents’ conceded xG 1.02 gives ≈1.66, and Ludogorets attack xG 1.86 versus hosts’ conceded xG 0.92 gives ≈1.39, totalling ≈3.05 goals. In the last 5 matches Ludogorets scored 14 goals (avg 2.8) and Arda 8 goals (1.6), so in this sample both teams averaged 4.4 goals per game; in that period the visitors conceded 1 goal and the hosts 4. Seasonal indicators support Over 2.5: percentage of matches over 2.5 is 53% for Arda and 50% for Ludogorets versus a league average of 45%, and average shots 18.33 (Arda) and 14.14 (Ludogorets) with conversion rates of 10% and 15% increase real scoring potential. Based on an expected 3.05 goals I assign a high probability for Over 1.5 (~92%) and clear support for Over 2.5 (~72%), while Over 3.5 is less likely (~32%). Therefore the best compromise between certainty and value is Over 2.5 (recommendation: Over at the 2.5 line).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal comes from the visitors — in the last 5 matches Ludogorets led at the break in 4 of 5 games (80%), while Arda did so in only 1 of 5 (20%). The visitors also display better form: 4 wins in their last 5 matches (80%) versus Arda’s 3 wins (60%), and the average first-half goals are 1.4 for Ludogorets compared to 0.6 for Arda. Over the season Ludogorets scores an average of 2.07 goals per match with a 15% shot conversion rate, whereas Arda have a higher xG (xG = 2.3) but a lower conversion rate of 10%, suggesting the visitors are more efficient at turning chances into goals. Additionally, clean sheets for the visitors are more common — 79% of matches with a clean sheet at the break and 64% for the full match — versus 67% at the break and 53% for the full match for the hosts, which supports a scenario of Ludogorets taking a lead at the break and maintaining the result. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the 2/2 outcome, with smaller stakes for X/2 and possible draws.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Arda | Ludogorets | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ludogorets is 44% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Arda · 2.6 pts / match - Ludogorets
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ludogorets is 79% better for: goals scored per match.
1.1 goals / match - Arda · 1.97 goals / match - Ludogorets
Ludogorets is 41% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.93 goals / match - Arda · 0.66 goals / match - Ludogorets
Arda scores in 52% of matches (15 of 29 matches), while Ludogorets keeps a clean sheet in 59% (17 of 29 matches).
Ludogorets scores in 83% of matches (24 of 29 matches), while Arda keeps a clean sheet in 41% (12 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Arda
Over / Under - Ludogorets
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ludogorets is 21% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.28 pts / match - Arda · 1.55 pts / match - Ludogorets
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Arda - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Ludogorets - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 59%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +7 | +6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (18 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +14 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Arda
Ludogorets
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First League).
Teams vs league
| Arda | Liga | Ludogorets | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.03 | 2.35 | ▲ 2.62 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 28% | 43% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 34% | 46% | ▲ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 41% | 35% | ▲ 59% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 66% | 62% | ▲ 66% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 62% | 73% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Arda 1 - 0 - 0 Ludogorets. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Arda vs Ludogorets?
The First League match finished Arda 1:0 Ludogorets. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Arda vs Ludogorets?
Arda score 1.10 goals per game on average and Ludogorets 1.97. The First League average is 2.35 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 28% of Arda's matches and 41% of Ludogorets's.
What form are Arda and Ludogorets in?
Over the last 5 games Arda have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Ludogorets 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Arda vs Ludogorets?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Arda vs Ludogorets: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.