Arda vs Montana: match statistics

Arda is 7th in the table while Montana is 16th; in the last 5 matches Arda has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 7 goals, whereas Montana has 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses and has not scored. At home Arda averages 14 shots per match, with 4.31 on target and 57% possession, and their home xG is 1.72 (they actually score 0.92 goals per home match), while Montana away averages 8.5 shots with 2.79 on target, 43% possession, xG 1.13 and only 0.36 goals per away match. Defensively Arda concedes only 0.85 goals per home match and has 46% clean sheets, whereas Montana concedes 1.64 goals away, has 21% clean sheets and fails to score in 64% of away games; the visitors win only 7% of their away matches. The difference in efficiency is evident: shot conversion for the hosts is about 7% versus 4% for the visitors, and the advantage in xG (1.72 vs 1.13) and shots (14 vs 8.5) suggests Arda will create more high-quality chances. Considering the clearly better form (an average of 2.0 points in the last 5 matches versus 0.2 for Montana), superiority in possession, shots and a more stable defense, I predict a home win.

BTTS - No is the more probable outcome. Montana has failed to score in their last 5 matches (0 goals, 0.0 avg) and posts a season average of 0.36 goals with xG 1.13 and a low conversion rate of 4%. Arda at home in their last five matches has scored 7 goals (1.4 avg) and conceded only 2 (0.4 avg), showing solid form both offensively and defensively. Season BTTS rates are 46% for Arda and 29% for Montana, but the last 5 games reveal a clear trend: 20% (Arda) vs 0% (Montana) for BTTS, indicating a reduced likelihood of both teams scoring. Additionally Arda generates 1.22 xG at home and averages 3.15 shots on target, while Montana records 1.13 xG and 2.79 shots on target with 4% conversion—Montana’s lack of finishing increases the chance of a No Goal outcome. Considering form (Arda: W D L W W, Montana: D L L L L), the recent goals disparity (7 vs 0) and conversion metrics, I assign an 80% probability to BTTS - No and 20% to BTTS - Yes.

Calculated expected goals from xG are approximately 1.46 for Arda (xG_for_home 1.22 vs xG_against_away 1.69 → average 1.455) and 1.32 for Montana (xG_for_away 1.13 vs xG_against_home 1.52 → average 1.325), combined ≈2.78 goals. This exceeds the league average of 2.35 and aligns with a very high share of matches with over 0.5 goals: Arda 85% and Montana 86%, which increases the likelihood of additional scoring. Seasonal distributions also show Over 1.5 occurs in 62% of Arda’s matches and 50% of Montana’s, while Over 2.5 is only 38%/43% — hence a stronger signal for the 1.5 line than for 2.5 or 3.5. Additionally, Arda scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 1.4) and conceded 2, while Montana failed to score in the last 5 (0.0) and conceded 6; shot and conversion metrics favor the home side (Arda 9.92 shots, 3.15 on target, conversion 7.0% vs Montana 8.5, 2.79, 4.0%). A Poisson model with λ=2.78 estimates ~77% for Over 1.5, ~53% for Over 2.5 and ~30% for Over 3.5, therefore I recommend backing the over on the 1.5 line as the strongest data-driven signal.

In 4 of Arda’s last 5 matches the score was level at half-time (80%), and Montana also had a half-time draw in 4 of their last 5 fixtures (80%), indicating a strong tendency toward draws in the first half. In the second halves of their last 5 matches Arda averaged 1.0 goal and won the second half in 60% of cases, while Montana averaged 0.0 goals and did not win any second halves. Arda has a higher xG of 1.22 versus Montana’s 1.13 and a better shot conversion rate (7% vs 4%), and in the last 5 matches Arda won 3 of 5 (60%) while Montana did not win any (0%), giving the home side an advantage in the closing stages. Considering the draw-prone nature of first halves (80% in the last 5) and Arda’s stronger second half performance (average 1.0 goal and 60% second-half wins), the most likely scenario is a half-time draw followed by a home win after 90 minutes (X/1), hence stronger odds for X/1 (~48%), followed by X/X (24%) and 1/1 (12%).