Arema vs Bhayangkara: match statistics

Arema hold a slight home advantage: they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded at home, while Bhayangkara score and concede 2 goals per game away. The hosts are unbeaten at home so far, recording one win and one draw, while the visitors drew their only away match to date. The quality of chances created also edges in Arema’s favour, with an average home xG of 1.34 compared with Bhayangkara’s 1.17 away. However, the visitors have been in better form over their last five matches: they have won twice and scored 13 goals, while Arema have won once and netted 9. Therefore, a home win is the most likely outcome, although the visitors’ scoring form and the small sample of away matches played so far call for a cautious assessment.

Goals from both teams are more likely: in their last 5 matches, both Arema and Bhayangkara recorded BTTS in 60% of games, averaging 1.8 and 2.6 goals scored, respectively. The hosts create chances worth an average xG of 1.61, while the visitors allow their opponents an xG of 1.41, supporting Arema’s chances of finding the net. Bhayangkara also have a case in attack, averaging 2.0 goals scored, while Arema have conceded an average of 1.6 goals in their last 5 matches. The biggest risk to this pick is the hosts’ season-long defensive record: they concede just 0.5 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 50% of games. Even so, the attacking effectiveness of both sides and the higher number of goals Arema have conceded recently point to a scenario in which both teams score (BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal).

The strongest signal is for at least two goals: every match played by either team so far has finished with over 1.5 goals. Arema average 1.5 goals at home, while Bhayangkara concede 2.0 away; the hosts also register an xG of 1.61 compared with the 1.41 xG conceded by the visitors. Bhayangkara average 2.0 goals away, although Arema’s defence concede just 0.5 at home, so I estimate the visitors’ tally more conservatively at 1.2 goals. Over the last five matches, the average total was 3.4 goals in Arema games and 4.0 in Bhayangkara games, yet only 60% of those matches went over 2.5 goals. This gives Over 1.5 a clearer edge than the higher goal lines.

A draw at half-time followed by an Arema win is the most likely outcome. The hosts have failed to score in the first half of either of their two home matches so far, while Bhayangkara have not scored before the break in three of their last five games, limiting the chances of either side taking an early lead. After the break, Arema have averaged 1.5 goals at home and won both second halves, whereas Bhayangkara conceded after half-time and failed to score themselves in their only away match. The hosts’ advantage is also supported by the underlying chance-quality figures: their average xG is 1.61 compared with their opponents’ 1.17, while their average xG conceded is 0.68 against 1.41 for the visitors. However, the X/1 HT/FT pick remains uncertain due to the small sample of home and away matches, as well as the fact that Bhayangkara have averaged 1.6 goals after the break across their last five games.