Arema vs Persebaya Surabaya: match statistics

Arema has a clear home advantage: at home they score on average 1.71 goals per match and concede 1.43, with 51% possession and 4.43 shots on target per game; Persebaya away averages 1.14 goals scored, 1.21 conceded and 2.93 shots on target. Average xG confirms the difference in chance quality: Arema generates 1.48 xG at home with 1.33 xG against, while Persebaya on the road records 1.13 xG and concedes 1.73 xG. In the last five matches Arema scored 5 and conceded 3, averaging 1.6 points per game, whereas Persebaya also scored 5 but conceded 10 and averages 1.2 points per game, revealing clear defensive issues for the visitors. Additionally, the home side failed to score in only 7% of home matches, while the visitors were goalless in 21% of away games; shot conversion for the hosts is 14% versus 12% for Persebaya, which favors Arema. Although Persebaya occupy a higher league position (6th vs 10th), based on the above statistics I predict a home win.

Statistics favor the "Both Teams To Score" scenario: Arema has a season BTTS rate of 67% versus Persebaya's 50% and a league average of 55%. Arema averages 1.67 goals per match (xG 1.62), with 12.6 shots and 4.8 on target, while Persebaya averages 1.14 goals (xG 1.13) with 9.57 shots and 2.93 on target, suggesting the home side will create more chances. Persebaya conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 avg) and has season xG against of 1.73, indicating defensive vulnerability, while scoring 5 goals in those 5 matches (1.0 avg). Arema failed to score in only 7% of season matches, while Persebaya were goalless in 21%; the simple product of these rates (93%×79%≈73%) supports a high probability of BTTS. Therefore I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 73% versus 27% for No.

I estimate expected goals at 1.68 for Arema and 1.29 for Persebaya (calculated as the average of team attack xG and opponent xG: (1.62+1.73)/2 and (1.13+1.44)/2), giving a total of 2.97 goals. With total xG = 2.97, a Poisson distribution yields probability for over 1.5 goals of about 80% (P(≥2)≈0.80), over 2.5 around 57% (P(≥3)≈0.57) and over 3.5 around 35% (P(≥4)≈0.35). Seasonal data support this assessment: share of matches with over 1.5 goals is 73% for Arema and 71% for Persebaya, while over 2.5 goals is 60% and 36% respectively — hence the 2.5 line is less certain. Additionally Arema averages 4.8 shots on target and 12.6 shots per match versus Persebaya’s 2.93 on target and 9.57 shots, and Persebaya conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per game), which elevates goal probabilities. As a result the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (line 1.5, over) — highest probability ~80% and strong seasonal support 73%/71%; the 2.5 line is a moderate pick (~57%), and 3.5 remains risky (~35%).

Half-time statistics indicate that a draw at the break is common: Arema were level at half-time in 47% of matches, while Persebaya were level in 57%, with Arema averaging 0.73 goals by the break versus Persebaya’s 0.29. Nevertheless, the hosts generate a stronger season-long offense — xG 1.62 versus 1.13, an average of 4.8 shots on target versus 2.93 and a conversion rate of 13% versus 12% — suggesting more goal-scoring opportunities for Arema. After the break Arema have a positive second-half goal differential (+5) and score on average 0.93 goals after half-time, while Persebaya have a -1 differential and score 0.86 on average; this points to the hosts’ advantage in second halves. Additionally, Arema have a higher win percentage (47% versus the visitors’ 36%) and a season points average of 1.67 versus 1.43, so overall the edge favors the home side. On that basis the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an Arema victory after 90 minutes (X/1).